Thursday, October 17, 2024

Trading Research - Nifty 50 script influencers analysis across key stake holders!



Context:

When it comes to the market movement on a day, in addition to the fundamental factors, there are many other influences on the market move which include the macro economy, business cycle, policies, sentiments, key events etc. This influence is accounted by key set of players namely the promoters, FIIs, DIIs and the Public. It is not clear as to how promoters influence on a daily basis, but their influence can not be ruled out, and let us leave it at that. Then there can be unison or diversion between FIIs and DIIs. Now a days, the DIIs bring more money to the table, but historic investments of FII make them still very influential. The general public too is becoming a force to reckon with, but they tend to be more swept by sentiments and moves by other three.

Focus:

Here is an attempt to understand the influence different players can play on nifty scripts. If this analysis becomes useful, then one can trade nifty stocks with more confidence and intuision as one is aware of the influences of various parties on the script associated. The success from this research if confirmed, phase 2 is to extend to Nifty next 50, and in phase 3 to all the F&O stocks. There may be some value for investment decisions too, but that factor is ignored for now.

1. Top 10 Market Cap stocks perspective:

The picture above makes it clear as to who they are. Apparently the Nifty weightage can be out of whack with the Market Cap weightage. When a high market cap stock moves, it tends to carry many other stocks behind it. 

Top 10 market cap stocks make out almost 50% of Nifty market cap. Nifty weightage is quite close, 52%.

There is a distribution of promoter holding % across these 10 stocks. Highest promoter holding is with TCS at 71.77% and least with HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and ITC at zero.

Highest FII holding is with HDFC Bank at 48.02%, and least with SBI at 10.71%.

Highest DII holding is with ICICI Bank followed closely by ITC. Least DII holding is with TCS at 10.86%.

Highest public holding % is with HDFC Bank at 16.75%, and the least with Bharti Airtel at 2.89%.

Average market cap of Top 10 market cap stocks in nifty is approx. 980Kcrore while across entire Nifty 50 it is approx. 400K crore.  Top 10 market caps have an average weightage of 5% while the entire nifty stocks have 2% each.

Key thing to note on Top 10 Market Cap stocks is that the influence of FII and DII is equally placed overall. Public can match that only by 40-42%. We are yet to hear of public share holder activism in the market, then such an info becomes more useful.

2. Nifty level averages:

The following are the key  values to remember at Nifty 50 level:

Average promoter %: 42.98

Average FII %: 23.89

Average DII %: 20.16

Average public %: 12.52

DII and Public % together it is 32.68%

Market Cap Total: 199 Lakh Crores

Market Cap Average: approx. 400 K Crore.  


3. Promoter Perspective:

3.1. Top 10 Promoter holding stocks in Nifty 50:


Adani Enterprises is at the top with 74.89% promoter holding, Ultra Tech at the low at 59.98%. Average is at 65.46%. Average market cap of these stocks is approx. 472 K Cr. These stocks have market cap weightage of only 23.65%, and nifty weightage is only 14%. All other stakeholders have lower holding, but the DIIs are comparable to FII, and public are also quite close to both at above 90%.

3.2. Bottom 10 Promoter Holding stocks in Nifty 50:


The lowest promoter holding is at 0% for L&T, ITC, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank. Highest promoter holding in the list is approx. 25.89% for Kotak Mahindra Bank. Average promoter holding is approx. 10.9%.

So, obviously the other stakeholders are stronger here, FII on average is 40.85%, DII on average is 33.38%, and public at 14.34%. So, FIIs have an upper hand therefore.

Average market cap of these stocks is approx. 537 K Cr.

While these 10 stocks have combined 26.88% in market cap weightage within nifty, nifty weightage is much high at 42%. So, the move in these stocks has higher amplitude on the index therefore.

Bottom line: Nifty weightage is designed to be less if the promoter holding is higher.


3. FII perspective:

3.1. Top 10 FII Holding stocks within Nifty 50:


The highest FII holding % is with Shriram Finance at 54.26%, lowest with Kotak Mahindra Bank at 33.16%, average at 43.21.

DII % average being 31.33, their influence comes short when compared to FII. Publics have 11% to make the difference between the two.

Promoters holding average is also low at 13.83%.

Average market cap is at 498K Cr, market cap weightage is 24.95%, but nifty weightage is 39. So, it is advantage FIIs in the top FII holding stocks as to market move amplification.

3.2. Least FII holding 10 stocks in Nifty 50:


Least FII holding is with Wipro Ltd ar 7.27%, and the best within the list is 13.69% with Grasim industries. The average FII holding is at 10.55%. Promoters at 62.73%, DIIs at 13.91% with upper hand when compared to FII %, and public too at impressive 11.67%. So, one can say, FII influence on daily move of these stocks is the least within the Nifty 50.

No wonder, the market cap weightage is at 24.37% while the nifty weightage lags at mere 15%.

Average market cap is at 486K Cr.

4. DII holdings perspective:

4.1. Top 10 DII Holding stocks in Nifty 50:


Best DII holding % is at 44.45% with ICICI Bank, and the least in the list is NTPC Ltd with 27.55%.

FIIs match the DIIs here with average of 36.37%, slightly more than DII average of 35.09%. The public are at 14.24%, behind the promoters at 15.11%.

Market Cap weightage is at 27.28%, and the Nifty weightage is at 42%.  So, the move in these stocks does matter to the index.

Average market cap is at 545 K Cr.

4.2. Least DII holding 10 stocks in Nifty 50:


The least DII holding is with Adani Enterprises at 6.46%, and the best in the list is 11.84% with Eicher Motors. Average DII holding is 9.61%.

Compared to this, the average holdings of promoters is at 59.51%, FIIs at 16.51%, and public is at 14.21%.

Market Cap weightage is at 18.81%, nifty weightage is mere 12%. So, in general Nifty does not move much when these stocks move.

Average market cap is at 376 K Cr.

Public are superior to DII on these stocks though they come short against FII.

5. Public Holding Perspective.

5.1. Top Public Holding 10 stocks in Nifty:


Top public holding is with L&T at 37.6% and the least in the list is at 19.68% for Asian Paints. Average public holding is at 24.25%, much higher that FIIs at 19.34% and DIIs at 17.81%. So, if there can be public holding activism, these 10 stocks are ideal candidates. Promoter holding is at 38.47%.

Average market cap is at mere 256K Cr. Market Cap weightage is at 12.84%, Nifty weightage is at 14%. Bottom line, the move here does not impact the index much, especially given lack of activism and unison among public holders.

5.2. Least 10 public holding stocks in Nifty 50.


Least public holding is with Bharti Airtel at 2.89%, best in the list is with Sriram Finance at 5.07%. Average public holding is only 4.06%. Fair to say that public sentiments do not matter to these stocks. Promoter holding is at 54.92%, FII at 21.83%, DII at 18.09%.

Average market cap is at 508K Cr. Market Cap weightage is at 25.43%, Nifty weightage is at 18.

6. Various contrasts and combinations seeking further distinctions:

6.1. Top 10 stocks within Nifty 50 where DIIs have more influence than FIIs.


On a head to head basis, strongest DII presence against FII is with Coal India Lts at 2.46 times holding, and the least in the list is Hindustan Uniliver at 1.19%. Average leverage is at 1.67 times.

Average promoter holding is at 49.64%, FIIs at 13.97%, DIIs at 22.58%, public at 12.56%.

Average market cap is at 371 K Cr. Market cap weightage is at 18.6%, Nifty weightage at 15%.

So, when DIIs move up or down with huge amount, watch these stocks more for more amplified moves.

6.2.  Top 10 stocks within Nifty 50 where FIIs have more influence than DIIs.


The best FII influence is on Shriram Finance Ltd at 54.28% and the least in the list is at 11.31% with Adani Enterprises. The average FII % is at 29.21%, DII at 13.08%, public at 10.53% and promoters at 47.06%.

From the DII to FII holding ratio perspective lowest is at 0.28 for Shriram Finance, the best in the list is not the Adani Enterprises, rather SBI Life Insurance Company at 0.61. Average ratio here is 0.48 meaning DIIs are at 52% compared to FII at 48%, a marginal leverage of sorts. 

So, if there is a fight between the FIIs and DIIs, it will be intensive on these stocks, so these tocks can be more volatile on such days.

Average market cap is at 215 KCr, Market Cap weightage is at 10.76%, Nifty weightage is at 9%.

6.3. Top 10 stocks with public holding dominance over FIIs


Best public holding % against FIIs is with Bajaj Finserv at 2.76 times, and the least at .99 times with Tata Motors. Average public holding % in the list is 1.53%. Rarely public will combine their might together and go against FII might, when that happens, this list becomes more relevant. But the dominant DIIs can leverage public sentiment to counter FIIs here.

Promoter holding average is at 48.46%, FII at 14.46%, DII is at 15.77%, public at 21.17%.  

Market Cap average is at 323K Cr, market cap weightage at 16.19%, Nifty weightage is at 15%.

6.4. Top 10 stocks with strong public holding against both FII and DII

 


This list is slightly different as the public holding % is compared to the average of FII and DII % than stand alone basis.

Bajaj Finserv remains on the top with 2.91 times more holding, and the least in the list is JSW Steel at 1.22 times. The average ratio is 1.61.

So, if there is a public level activism, the public can sway better against these stocks assuming the promoters remain neutral.

The promoter % average is 48.17%, FIIs at 16.42%, DIIs at 13.83%, Public at 21.37%.

Average market cap is at 288K Cr, market cap weightage at 14.41%, Nifty weightage at 13%.

6.5. Top 10 stocks with best of total DII and Public holdings in Nifty 50


Hypothetically, if DIIs and Public holders combine forces, they can sway better on these stocks. Highest combined holding is at 78.04% with L&T, least in the list is with TCS at 41,79%, average combined is at 51.74%.

Average promoter holding is at 16.7%, FIIs at 31.28%, DIIs at 31.09%, public at 20.65%.

The average market cap is at 475K Cr, market cap weightage is at 23.8%, Nifty weightage is at 37%.

So, at the least Publics can follow DII trend and amplify the moves on these stocks easily relatively. So, trade with these stocks when DIIs are pouncing with these.

 7. Whether it is a weekly Top 50 MF report or special MF report, or this kind of special blog, these are availble in the blog site indicated below. Blogs are also rendered as videos (on Youtube and Instagram) for those not prefering to read.

Blog: NatsFunCorner! on Blogger

https://natsfuncorner.blogspot.com/

Other relevant Social Network Platform links:

Whatsapp Group: This whatsapp group is a peer group, people active in investment and trading (including day trading) are here, exchanging their insight and views. Please note that there is no room for promotional participation here. 

https://chat.whatsapp.com/IuzkVAHgn1jJ20ZmB8m9Vz

FB: https://www.facebook.com/nupadhya/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/nupadhya

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/natsupadhya/

Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/nupadhya

LinkedIn: https: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nupadhya/

Disclaimer:

1. Cant promise that all observations here can be leveraged for trading. But, this knowledge is useful to know a Nifty 50 stock better in finger tips, so the intuition becomes better accurate and acute sharp for trading.

2. This is niether a solicitation nor recommendation to trade on specific stocks.

3. Nifty and holding data changes regularly if not daily. This data is based on snapshots of data available on the internet on Oct 17, 2024.




 

Saturday, October 12, 2024

Special Mutual Funds Report - Detailed Equity Funds Returns Analysis by Sub-Type as on Oct 11, 2024

 


Commentary:

1. Welcome to the detailed returns analysis of equity mutual funds by sub-type. Last time, this report was done as on Sept 13, 2024 and this report is as on Oct 11, 2024. 

2. The equity funds returns average by sub-type are ranked for each timeline above. The overall ranking is also given and the list is sorted by decreasing order of overall rank. Finally, the current overall ranking is compared with last time ranking, and finally the differential is given either as a ranking improvement or loss. Negative value is the ranking loss, and value of zero means no change in ranking.

3. The top 5 and bottom 5 rankings are as follows this time:

3.1. Top 5 ranking sub types

    Rank 1: Pharma

    Rank 2: Mid Cap

    Rank 3: Small Cap

    Rank 4: Multi Cap

    Rank 5: Large & Mid Cap

3.2. Bottom 5 ranking sub types:

    Rank 20: Banking

    Rank 19: Large Cap

    Rank 18: Value Oriented

    Rank 17: PSU

    Rank 16: Energy

3.3. Do not get disheartened by lower ranking sub types. You may find exceptional performers among them too, especially in those with many funds as the standard deviation of performance can be high in such sub-types. Case in point is the Large Cap funds, though ranked 19th, you will find some handfuls worthy of new investments. 

4. The following ranking changes since the last report can be noticed:

4.1. Ranking improvement by more than 5 ranks this time: 

    - International type - ranking improvement by 9

4.2. Ranking improvement by 1-5:

    - Thematic General: Ranking improvement by 4

    - MNC and Energy: Ranking improvement by 3

    - Mid Cap, Large & Mid Cap, Infrastructure: Ranking improvement by 2

    - Pharma, Multi Cap, ELSS: Ranking improvement by 1

4.3. No change in overall ranking this time:

    - Small Cap, Dividend Yield, PSU

4.4. Ranking loss by 1 to 5 ranks:

    - Technology: Ranking loss by 2

    - Flexi Cap, ESG, Large Cap: Ranking loss by 4

    - Value Oriented, Banking: Ranking loss by 5

    - Consumption: Ranking loss by 6

5. Color coding of returns in the detailed list by sub type:

    - Funds with above average returns within the list (if there are more than 50 funds in a subtype, only top 50 are considered by monthly return, and the averages within this top 50 are considered) in all timelines from 1W thru 1Y are marked as green.

    - Funds with above average returns within the list in all timelines from 1W thru 1Y, except for one timeline are marked as amber. For marking as amber, the best of the weekly and monthly return are considered, meaning if any one of the weekly or monthly return is above average, then it sufficed that both timelines are considered as above average. This concetion is given to average out the deviation within the two short terms.

- If the returns data are available only up to 1 month, then the fund can not be marked as green, but can be marked as amber for the returns above average.

- Unlike the weekly top 50 analysis, here the color coding does not meet indication as a preferred investment choice, just the stand out for superior consistent performance within the list.

6. Detailed list of funds by sub type in the descending order of monthly return: 

6.1.  The fund sub types are listed below by descending order of overall performance ranking.

6.2. Detailed top ranked funds are listed below for all the twenty sub types:

6.2.1 Pharma  


6.2.2. Mid Cap
6.2.3. Small Cap
6.2.4 Multi Cap
6.2.5. Large & Mid Cap
6.2.6. Thematic - General
6.2.7. Consumption
6.2.8. Technology
6.2.9. Infrastructure
6.2.10. ELSS
6.2.11. International
6.2.12. Flexi Cap
6.2.13. ESG
6.2.14. Dividend Yield
6.2.15. MNC
6.2.16. Energy
6.2.17. PSU
6.2.18.Value Oriented
6.2.19. Large Cap
6.2.20. Banking

7. Whether it is a weekly Top 50 MF report or special MF report, these are availble in the blog indicated below. Blogs are also rendered as videos (on Youtube and Instagram) for those not prefering to read.

Blog: NatsFunCorner! on Blogger

https://natsfuncorner.blogspot.com/

Other relevant Social Network Platform links:

Whatsapp Group: This whatsapp group is a peer group, people active in investment and trading (including day trading) are here, exchanging their insight and views. Please note that there is no room for promotional participation here. 

https://chat.whatsapp.com/IuzkVAHgn1jJ20ZmB8m9Vz

FB: https://www.facebook.com/nupadhya/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/nupadhya

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/natsupadhya/

Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/nupadhya

LinkedIn: https: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nupadhya/


Disclaimer:

- This is not a solicitation for mutual fund investment nor an advice. It is only an insight to help investment decisions based on the free MF performance data downloaded from Value Research. Investment decisions are only yours to make.

- Mutual fund investments are subjected to market risk. Read the propsectus of a mutual fund for all the risk information associated prior to investment.

- The author can not be responsible for the ommissions or errors in the data from Value Research or the data processing errors if any by the author.

- All your investment decisions need to be based on your decision finally, with no blame to anyone else later.


Friday, October 11, 2024

Top 50 Mutual Funds Analysis for the week ending on Oct 11, 2024

 


Commentary:

1. Though the equity market did not correct like previous week, the indices are sideways with slight downward bias. When we compare the equity funds universal average, we can reconfirm it with bit loss of annual return average from 41.95 to 40.46%

2. Weekly Top 50 impressed with good weekly gain and monthly Top 50 impressed with good monthly gain. The annual Top 50 receded a bit in annual gain from 67.85 to 67.38%.

3. The annual gain of weekly Top 50 being at 58.17, one can be bit relieved that very short term leaders include many medium term gain leaders, making investment decisions bit easier, we will see the details later.

4. Bottom line, much better week for the equities compared to last week, that too with Hang Seng Index excitement cooling off, it is advantage performance leaders through this week report.


5. It is good to see some funds in green on the Weekly Top 50 funds list. The funds are marked green for having above average return within the list for all timelines from 1W thru 1Y. The funds are marked Amber for having above average return in all timelines from 1W thru 1Y except for one timeline, and if above average from1W or 1M timeline is missing, then the other above average is considered to represent both the timelines for Amber computation. Good to see that the Defence funds are returning back to investment grade.

 


6. Though Hang Seng based funds are in the top of Monthly Top 50, their weekly returns are negative, so it is a pause on investment consideration ahead.



7. Equity Annual Top 50 list is some what similar to what we saw in previous report.


8. Weekly Equity Bottom 50 is used to identify bearish reversals. The rows marked in red are those with below average return for the week or the month, at the same time having above average return for the year. Metal and Commidity funds are losing the shine, so caution ahead.


9. The Monthly Bottom 50 funds list is leveraged similar to Weekly Bottom 50 list, fishing for bearish reversals.  Quant fund family is infamous with too many in this list. Quant funds find it hard to be on the top thru the defensive market conditions.


10. Equity Annual Bottom 50 is leveraged differently, to sense bullish reversals. The rows marked in grey are those with above average weekly or monthly return irrespective of annual return (that is because there is not much divergence in annual return in this list). Bank ETFs are showing the sign of better recovery ahead, after many failed attempts. Let us see. Do not trust them to do better till they vanish from this list altogether. 



11. Comparing the hybrid fund summary from this week to previous week, the funds did better for short term.  Going forward, only Monthly Top 50 details will be shared for hybrid funds as there is not much distinction to be made with further details.


12. The annual performance leaders of hybrid funds with approx. 50% annual gain are missing in the Monthly Top 50, confirming emergence of new leadership ahead.


13. Debt funds performance overall improved thru this week.


14. There is a churn out as to monthly performance of debt funds thru this week. The Long Term Bond funds are pushed bit below this time.



15. Commodity funds corrected thru this week, taking some shine off the returns average on all timelines.


16. A set of commodity funds flip flop in leadership depending on whether the commodity funds had a bullish week or not. So, we see different set of funds on the top this time. It is fair to say that these are more defensive leaders while what we saw last week are the aggressive leaders. With this demarkation, we rarely see an undisputed leader with consistent performance and green status all the time here.

17. Whether it is a weekly Top 50 MF report or special MF report, these are availble in the blog indicated below. Blogs are also rendered as videos for those not prefering to read.

Blog: NatsFunCorner! on Blogger

https://natsfuncorner.blogspot.com/

Other relevant Social Network Platform links:

Whatsapp Group: This whatsapp group is a peer group, people active in investment and trading (including day trading) are here, exchanging their insight and views. Please note that there is no room for promotional participation here. 

https://chat.whatsapp.com/IuzkVAHgn1jJ20ZmB8m9Vz

FB: https://www.facebook.com/nupadhya/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/nupadhya

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/natsupadhya/

Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/nupadhya

LinkedIn: https: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nupadhya/


Disclaimer:

- This is not a solicitation for mutual fund investment nor an advice. It is only an insight to help investment decisions based on the free MF performance data downloaded from Value Research. Investment decisions are only yours to make.

- Mutual fund investments are subjected to market risk. Read the propsectus of a mutual fund for all the risk information associated prior to investment.

- The author can not be responsible for the ommissions or errors in the data from Value Research or the data processing errors if any by the author.

- All your investment decisions need to be based on your decision finally, with no blame to anyone else later.