Commentary:
1. Equity Funds
1.1. Equity Funds Summary
Equities market recovered a bit thru this week. This is more of a dead cat bounce, as the FIIs are still selling net net in the market.
The market bottom is in the sight, but another 5-10% further correction can not be ruled out till April 15th or so. It is also predicted by pundits that market short term recovery aheasd may not be more than 7% thru the first quarter of 2025 which is till June end.
Net net, there is no attractive risk reward ratio to invest even now in the equity market, so I personally will stay from fresh mutual fund investments unless I get to see a bottomming out on at least some sectors like Banking, which I am unable to confirm thru this report.
I will definitely announce significant changes in my personal outlook ahead as it happens. I hope to pump in significant amount to the mutual funds when I sense the market bottomming confirmation. (This is because I took out almost all money from mutual funds sensing ongoing corrections) As said before, the market will go thru a good period of consolidation before any possible V type sharp recovery. So, there is no panic of missing out yet.
With the market recovery, the average weekly return of Weekly Top 50 improved, but not so with average monthly return of Monthly Top 50 and average annual return of Annual Top 50. Why? This is because, in each week report, we let go one week worth of data (53rd week) and add new week data (most recent week). It is just that the recent week data is not as spectacular as the week data that was let go. This again confirms the dead cat bounce, and not a confirmation of market botttoming out.
Now a days, I do not invest in hybrid funds as they have failed yet again to prove to be a better alternative to the equities when equities are correcting.
I do not invest in debt funds, as I am able to lock in 9.5% kind of interest with bank deposits (It is ok to invest in small bank deposits, as long as the insurance is ensured. A couple can invest up to 20 lacks safely in a small bank deposits, by creating four different FD accounts, A B, AB, BA. Across three people, this limit can go up to 15 accounts and therefore 75 lacks coverage with insurance.)
Though commodity funds have done well in the last one year, I have not invested. Rather I consider the commodity ETFs short term when I feel better risk reward ratio short term, when I have the fear of missing out.
One should also look at the sections of hybrid, debt and commodity funds performances, if interested to invest.
1.2. Equity Top 50
Green and Amber color marked mutual funds in the list: Since the focus is not only looking for the performance leaders, but also consistent above average performance across all the timelines, the funds are marked in Green or Amber to easily recognize consistency of perfromance among the leaders.
Green:
If the returns for all the available timelines from 1W thru 1Y is above the average within the list. The fund can not be marked green even with this rule if the returns are not available beyond a month, in which case the fund is marked as amber only.
Amber:
If the returns for all the available timelines from 1W thru 1Y is above the average within the list except for one timeline. For this exception, if any of the weekly and monthly returns are above average, then both timelines are considered to have above average return.
1.2.1. Equity Weekly Top 50
1.2.3. Equity Annual Top 50
1.3. Equity Bottom 50
Both the weekly and monthly bottom 50 lists are leveraged to identify potential bearish reversal indications of the funds. This is done by marking above average annual return in bold and below average returns for the week and month. The funds with both weekly and monthy below average, but annual above average are marked in darker red, while the funds with only one of the weekly and monthly below averages but with above average annual return are marked in light red.
Annual bottom 50 funds list is used to recognize potential bullish reversal. Any fund with above average return for both the week and the month in the list is marked as grey indicating potential bullish reversal.
1.3.1. Equity Weekly Bottom 50
5. Whether it is a weekly Top 50 MF report or special MF report, these are availble in the blog indicated below.
Blog: NatsFunCorner! on Blogger
https://natsfuncorner.blogspot.com/
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Disclaimer:
- This is not a solicitation for mutual fund investment nor an advice. It is only an insight to help investment decisions based on the free MF performance data downloaded from Value Research. Investment decisions are only yours to make.
- Mutual fund investments are subjected to market risk. Read the propsectus of a mutual fund for all the risk information associated prior to investment.
- The author can not be responsible for the ommissions or errors in the data from Value Research or the data processing errors if any by the author.
- All your investment decisions need to be based on your decision finally, with no blame to anyone else later.
