Commentary:
1. There has been a significant recovery through the last week for the top 50 funds when compared to a week before. However, the commodity funds suffered a severe correction through the last week. As a result, many of the commodity funds have disappeared from the Top 50 based on 1M return, and the monthly average return of Top 50 across all funds has come down from 12.18 to 11.02.
2. In general, the equity funds have recovered through this week. As a result, the annual return average of top 50 based on 1M return has been further enhanced to 60.88.
3. Since there is fresh fear of inflation at the US and there is central effort to control it, there is a tug of war between commodity prices and the equities lead by technologies. We can anticipate volatility for next few weeks in this regard, with some impact to Indian MF too. So, while there is recovery on Indian equity, need to see the impact of short term correction through next 2-3 weeks through the result season. Inflation fears could weigh on all types of equities short term, but after that, the election completion is likely to confirm bull time for Indian equities in general.
4. Based on the criteria of funds having above average returns from 1M through 1Y, the following have made to the investment grade in the monthly top 50 as on this week.
- HDFC Defence Fund
- Quant Commodities Fund
- Mirae Asset Nifty Smallcap 250 Momentum Quality 100 ETF
- Mirae Asset NYSE FANG+ETF FoF (In spite of weekly correction, further corrections due?)
- Quant Value Fund
- JM MidCap Fund
- SBI PSU Fund.
5. Looking at the bottom 50 funds based on 1M Return, the IT based funds are still in the bottom 50, though the intensity of correction is waning.
6. Due to inflation fear based corrections globally, many global equity based funds rule the bottom 50 based on 1M Return.
7. One can look at Top 50 funds based on 1Y Return, for assessing the consistent above average return providers (marked in green) across 1M thru 1Y timeframe. These funds areinvestment worthy inspite of potential corrections in the near future. The return of more PSU Funds to the top 50 indicates the enthusiasm of the market on post election bull run for PSU funds.
- CPSE ETF
- ABSL Equity PSU Fund
- SBI PSU Fund
- Mirae Asset NYSE FANG+ETF FOF (Watch out for further correction beyond this week though)
- Motilal Oswal S&P BSE Enhanced Value ETF
- Motilal Oswal S&P BSE Enhanced Value Index Fund
- Invesco India PSU Equity Fund
- ICICI Prudential PSU Equity Fund
- Quant Infrastructure Fund
- Quant Value Fund
- Bandhan Infrastrucutre Fund
8. Looking at the Bottom 50 based on 1Y Return helps to assess the damage done by certain thematic funds through the last one year, if these funds are in your portfolio.
9. When we look at the equity only funds top 50 based on 1M Return, the following funds make the investment grade by having above average return from 1M through 1Y timelines.
- HDFC Defence Fund
- Quant Commodities Fund
- Mirae Asset NYSE FANG+ETF FoF (Watch out for further correction beyond this week though)
- Quant Value Fund
- SBI PSU Fund
- LIC MF Infrastructure Fund
- DSP TIGER Fund
10. Looking at the Equity Only Top 50 based on 1Y Return, the following additional funds make the cut for investment worthiness:
- CPSE ETF
- ABSL PSU Equity Fund
- Invesco India PSU Equity Fund
- ICICI Prudential PSU Equity Fund
Funds that make in top 50 both in 1M and 1Y timeline basis give one more confidence for fresh investments ahead.
11. Looking at hybrid funds top 50 based on 1M Return, the following make it to fresh investment considerations:
- Quant Multi Asset Fund
- Quant Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund
- JM Aggressive Hybrid Fund
- Bank of India Mid & Small Cap Equity & Debt Fund
- ICICI Prudential Retirement Fund - Hybrid Aggressive Plan
- ABSL Multi Index FOF
- HSBC Aggressive Hybrid Fund
- Quant Absolute Fund
- ICICI Prudential Child Care Fund - Gift Plan
- Nippon India Asset Allocator FoF
- Shriram Multi Asset Allocation Fund
12. Looking at Hybrid Top 50 based on 1Y Return, a subset of the funds from Top 50 based on 1M Return make it to the fresh investment considerations. (See marked in green). No new fund outside this list here. Funds that repeat both in 1M and 1Y Top 50 can be more favorites for fresh investments.
13. Due to significant correction through last one week, there is some churn out as to the funds that made investment grade based on 1M Return. There will be further volatility short term, though there is overall higher confidence for the commodity funds to do well medium term due to inflation fears ahead in the US which will overflow globally. The funds making the investment grade through this week are:
- UTI Gold ETF FoF
- Invesco India Gold ETF FoF
- SBI Gold Fund
- Quantum Gold Savings Fund
- Kotak Gold Fund
- Axis Gold Fund
- Quantum Gold Fund
- HDFC Gold Fund
- LIC MF Gold ETF FoF
14. The significant correction through this week gives more impetus to make fresh investments to some of the leading Commodity Funds. I had made investments in SBI Gold Fund and Axis Gold Fund before and may add more through the week ahead.
15. There is nothing much to talk about Debt funds Top 50 based on 1M Return. Debt funds remain boring.
Best Regards
- Nataraja Upadhya
No comments:
Post a Comment