Commentary:
Summary
Mutual funds corrected further thru this week in general. However the averages for the 6 months and annual basis marginally improved.
Equities had significant correction, therefore hybrids also corrected for the week. Debt funds remained higher than the combined average, the Commodity funds had a positive week.
Effectively equities are now underperforming both for the week and the month, while maintaining positive outlook on three months basis.
Debt and Hybrids are under-performing for the 3 months and 6 months basis. Commodities are underperforming for the 3 months basis.
Concern:
There is no consistent performance leadership of mutual funds on Monthly Top 50 and Annual Top 50 basis with Green status. However, certain commodity funds gained green status on the Weekly Top 50 list.
I personally remain out of mutual fund investments for short term ahead, and leverage specific opportunities short term through ETF purchase, for example for Gold and Silver.
Opportunity:
Short term, the commodity funds may outperform.
This week report analysis further confirms the macro / segmental / sectoral outlooks / sentiments we can pick up for stock investment and trading short term, which is the key motivation for me to toil on this report week in and week out.
1. Combined Funds Top 50
1.1. Combined Funds Top 50 Summary
Combined Top 50 performance declined when compared to last week, on the Weekly average of Weekly Top 50, Monthly average of Monthly Top 50 and Annual average of Annual Top 50, further reconfirming that mutual funds are losing steam in general.
Good news is that all the top 50 lists across the week, month and year are having averages above the combined mutual fund averages. So, there is consistency of leadership, at least at the averages of Top 50 lists.
1.2. Combined Top 50
Green and Amber color marked mutual funds in the list: Since the focus is not only looking for the performance leaders, but also consistent above average performance across all the timelines, the funds are marked in Green or Amber to easily recognize consistency of perfromance among the leaders.
Green:
If the returns for all the available timelines from 1W thru 1Y is above the average within the list. The fund can not be marked green even with this rule if the returns are not available beyond a month, in which case the fund is marked as amber only.
Amber:
If the returns for all the available timelines from 1W thru 1Y is above the average within the list except for one timeline. For this exception, if any of the weekly and monthly returns are above average, then both timelines are considered to have above average
1.2.1. Combined Weekly Top 50
Certain commodity funds regaining green status in the list is a confirmation of the superior performance of the commodity funds for the near future.
1.2.2. Combined Monthly Top 50
Lack of green rows is a reconfirmation of lack of leadership consistency on a one month basis, further reconfirming that the markets likely to remain volatile ahead.
1.2.3. Combined Annual Top 50
Lack of green rows even at the annual level is a concern for the consistency of mutual funds leadership for an extended period. Commodity funds, however seem to provide some saftey net in spite of short term volatility for maintaining better annual returns ahead.
Bearish reversal signs:
Both the weekly and monthly bottom 50 lists are leveraged to identify potential bearish reversal indications of the funds. This is done by marking above average annual return in bold and below average returns for the week and month. The funds with both weekly and monthy below average, but annual above average are marked in darker red, while the funds with only one of the weekly and monthly below averages but with above average annual return are marked in light red.
Bullish reversal signs:
Annual bottom 50 funds list is used to recognize potential bullish reversal. Any fund with above average return for both the week and the month in the list is marked as grey indicating potential bullish reversal.
2. Referrence Links
Blog: NatsFunCorner! on Blogger
https://natsfuncorner.blogspot.com/
Other relevant Social Network Platform links:
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LinkedIn: https: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nupadhya/
Disclaimer:
- This is not a solicitation for mutual fund investment nor an advice. It is only an insight to help investment decisions based on the free MF performance data downloaded from Value Research. Investment decisions are only yours to make.
- Mutual fund investments are subjected to market risk. Read the propsectus of a mutual fund for all the risk information associated prior to investment.
- The author can not be responsible for the ommissions or errors in the data from Value Research or the data processing errors if any by the author.
- All your investment decisions need to be based on your decision finally, with no blame to anyone else later.
