Commentary:
Summary
Since I was out of station during the weekend, this report is coming late, but still useful to keep the last week in perspective.
Though I am not much into mutual funds now a days (mainly due to lack of consistent performance leadership of funds for medium term anymore), I find these reports very useful every week to strengthen my fuzzy logic for the daily day trading and investment decisions for the week ahead as follows:
- Overall market sentiment and the sectoral preferences
- The leadership rotation across fund types, sectors
- Bullish and bearish reversal signals (For example, through this report, the financial and railways PSU funds are showing bearish reversal signs, sending warning signal as to not to leverage them further thru the week ahead for long bets.)
- Performance benchmarks for me to beat in my own trading game
- Catching the rare mutual fund investment opportunity that will complement my daily engagement
Since the combined Top 50 analysis across the week, month and year is working well in this regard, I am re-introducing the Bottom 50 analysis, but at the Combined level than the equity only.
Will comment specifically for each of the Top 50 and Bottom 50 tables from here onwards, so the reader may need to browse through the entire report to maximise reading value.
Looking at the overall performance summary for this week, the equity and hybrid funds under performed for this week. The equities remained positive for the 1Month and 3 Month basis. Commodity funds remained underperforming for the month in spite of weekly gain this week.
Overall, the mutual funds slowed down through this week.
Concern:
Due to market volatility, there is no consistency of specific mutual fund leadership for short term or beyond, which can be frustrating for the mutual fund investor.
1. Combined Funds Top 50
1.1. Combined Funds Top 50 Summary
The weekly return of Weekly Top 50, the monthly return of Monthly Top 50 and the annual return of Annual Top 50 slowed down through this week.
Monthly return of Annual Top 50 is lower than the average across all mutual funds, which means that the annual top performers have underperformed through the last one month, which again is an indication of leadership churn out short term.
1.2. Combined Top 50
Green and Amber color marked mutual funds in the list: Since the focus is not only looking for the performance leaders, but also consistent above average performance across all the timelines, the funds are marked in Green or Amber to easily recognize consistency of perfromance among the leaders.
Green:
If the returns for all the available timelines from 1W thru 1Y is above the average within the list. The fund can not be marked green even with this rule if the returns are not available beyond a month, in which case the fund is marked as amber only.
Amber:
If the returns for all the available timelines from 1W thru 1Y is above the average within the list except for one timeline. For this exception, if any of the weekly and monthly returns are above average, then both timelines are considered to have above average
1.2.1. Combined Weekly Top 50
Commodity funds recovery through this week put Tata Silver ETF into the green zone, only one in the list.
1.2.2. Combined Monthly Top 50
Lack of India equity based funds leadership in the green zone for the monthly leadership is a concern.
1.2.3. Combined Annual Top 50
Leadership churnout among annual leaders is further, with no fund in the green zone.
Bearish reversal signs:
Both the weekly and monthly bottom 50 lists are leveraged to identify potential bearish reversal indications of the funds. This is done by marking above average annual return in bold and below average returns for the week and month. The funds with both weekly and monthy below average, but annual above average are marked in darker red, while the funds with only one of the weekly and monthly below averages but with above average annual return are marked in light red.
Bullish reversal signs:
Annual bottom 50 funds list is used to recognize potential bullish reversal. Any fund with above average return for both the week and the month in the list is marked as grey indicating potential bullish reversal.
2.
Blog: NatsFunCorner! on Blogger
https://natsfuncorner.blogspot.com/
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Disclaimer:
- This is not a solicitation for mutual fund investment nor an advice. It is only an insight to help investment decisions based on the free MF performance data downloaded from Value Research. Investment decisions are only yours to make.
- Mutual fund investments are subjected to market risk. Read the propsectus of a mutual fund for all the risk information associated prior to investment.
- The author can not be responsible for the ommissions or errors in the data from Value Research or the data processing errors if any by the author.
- All your investment decisions need to be based on your decision finally, with no blame to anyone else later.
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