This week:
Commentary:
Summary
Mutual funds overall advanced well thru this week, though intensity is bit less than the last week. Equity funds dominated in superior performance, commodity funds were bit neutral with upwards bias.
The performance of the debt funds were better than the previous week, but the performance of the hybrid funds were not as good as the previous week. This is because the equity performance was much higher last week when compared to this week.
PSU Bank based and India defence based funds surged this week, which can be spotted on the Weekly Top 50 list. It is better to wait for these to become monthly top 50 trends before investing further ahead.
Concern:
There is a looming correction of the traditional economy stocks in the US market, but the cutting edge sectors around AI, robotics, semiconductors, data centers, and energy is booming.
Though the interest rate cut, the bond yields are rising, as bonds are being ditched, so the corporate borrowing costs may remain high in the economy. So, the risks of slow down of growth and inflation may remain.
The rising yield issue of the US is overflowing to India too, which means the Indian corporate borrowing cost will remain high short term, which is a negative sentiment for the equity market.
For India, big blow for short term is that the H1B visa is becoming unviable, which means the Indian tech sector will feel the short term impact. Since the US firms too will feel the skills shortage impacts, in the longer term, the demand for India outshoring will improve. For short term, there can be negative bias on the tech firms.
Opportunity:
Though commodities were bit correcting against the previous week move, at the end of the week, there are signs of huge positive move ahead. Because of the move on Friday, the commodities remained positive for the week, but in coming weeks the commodities will outshine equity.
The demand for Gold and Silver will only go up short term.
1. Combined Funds Top 50
1.1. Combined Funds Top 50 Summary
Combined Top 50 returns slowed a bit on weekly and annual basis, but remained higher on the monthly basis.
The returns on the bottom 50 were better on weekly, monthly and annual basis, which means the divergence between the winners and losers narrowed a bit through this week.
It is not good enough to unleash towards fresh investment just because of 1 week worth of dominance. Case in point is the IT funds, which recovered recently, but may correct again ahead.
1.2. Combined Top 50
Green and Amber color marked mutual funds in the list: Since the focus is not only looking for the performance leaders, but also consistent above average performance across all the timelines, the funds are marked in Green or Amber to easily recognize consistency of perfromance among the leaders.
Green:
If the returns for all the available timelines from 1W thru 1Y is above the average within the list. The fund can not be marked green even with this rule if the returns are not available beyond a month, in which case the fund is marked as amber only.
Amber:
If the returns for all the available timelines from 1W thru 1Y is above the average within the list except for one timeline. For this exception, if any of the weekly and monthly returns are above average, then both timelines are considered to have above average
1.2.1. Combined Weekly Top 50
1.2.2. Combined Monthly Top 50
1.2.3. Combined Annual Top 50
Bearish reversal signs:
Both the weekly and monthly bottom 50 lists are leveraged to identify potential bearish reversal indications of the funds. This is done by marking above average annual return in bold and below average returns for the week and month. The funds with both weekly and monthy below average, but annual above average are marked in darker red, while the funds with only one of the weekly and monthly below averages but with above average annual return are marked in light red.
Bullish reversal signs:
Annual bottom 50 funds list is used to recognize potential bullish reversal. Any fund with above average return for both the week and the month in the list is marked as grey indicating potential bullish reversal.
2. Referrence Links
Blog: NatsFunCorner! on Blogger
https://natsfuncorner.blogspot.com/
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Disclaimer:
- This is not a solicitation for mutual fund investment nor an advice. It is only an insight to help investment decisions based on the free MF performance data downloaded from Value Research. Investment decisions are only yours to make.
- Mutual fund investments are subjected to market risk. Read the propsectus of a mutual fund for all the risk information associated prior to investment.
- The author can not be responsible for the ommissions or errors in the data from Value Research or the data processing errors if any by the author.
- All your investment decisions need to be based on your decision finally, with no blame to anyone else later.
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