How to use this report:
1. This report is useful to buy the funds on consistent performance leadership, sell the funds when they give signal of falling from such a leadership. It also gives a watchlist of underperforming funds showing sign of recovery, but not yet qualifying for buy.
The report summary is also useful on gauging market pulse ahead for regular stock investment and trading too.
2. Strategy: It is possible that one could aim to double the mutual fund returns over an year using this report than settling for average return concept using SIPs. Typically mutual fund returns on portfolio level are aimed at 12-15% per annum, this report attempts to help targeting 25-30% instead, but by not going for SIP, rather churn the portfolio to contain performance leaders as the market zigs and zags. In such an approach, the holding period of a fund may fall to as less as three months usually, even one month in some exceptional market moves. The price to pay in this approach is higher short term gains due to short term churn outs and also may be nominal exit load charges. But the superior return indicated above towards doubling annual yield has accounted for such an overhead.
3. This report is also useful for the stock traders and investors. This report gives insight at the level of summary and associated comments. Also, by identifying the bull and bear trends in the funds, one gets better pulse of the market for stock investment and trading. When someone notices a particular fund type in bearish mode or bullish mode here, but if one of the underlying stock shows different behavior, it is an alert to investigate this anomaly either as a spurious behavior or not.
Buy list:
This report highlights the top 50 mutual funds across all the fund types, for the periods 1 week, 1 month and 1year. Also, it marks the funds within these lists with green color if they are having above average return for all the timelines from 1M thru 1Y, highlighting consistency of performance leadership. For the new funds, it will not give green color just for having superior return for 1W and 1M, rather settles for Yellow, waiting for it to show superior performance beyond 1M.
It marks the funds as yellow, if missing above average returns just for one timeline. While giving yellow color, even if one of the 1W and 1M timeline is not above average, then both are considered as above average, which is to give some concession for very short term, giving the benefit of doubt, and not get spooked by the volatility very short term.
So, while considering the funds with yellow color, one should look for funds with average returns at shorter timelines as more favorable than the ones other way, meaning above average returns in later timelines but missing the boat in the shorter timelines.
Sell list:
The report highlights bottom 50 mutual funds for 1 W and 1M timelines. It highlights those funds having above average return in these lists for the year (meaning performance leaders within the recent losers) and having below average return for the 1W and 1M timeline. If below average for only one timeline across 1W and 1M, they are marked with lighter red, but if both of them below average, then marked darker red. The funds marked in red are the one to be sold before they lose further performance ahead. The money released from such sales can be used to buy the new performance leaders marked in green or yellow.
Why the funds with below average return are not marked in red if the annual average is below average?:
This is because the focus is to alert the bearish reversal sign only than including those who continue to remain in such a state across various weeks. It is understood that all the funds with below average annual return within the list are bearish and have return erosion risk by continuing to hold.
Watchlist:
When it comes to the annual bottom 50 list, it is used for bullish recovery signs. The funds which have above average return for both the 1W and 1M are considered as bullish recovery signs and are marked in grey. One should not buy these funds just for such recovery signs, but keep in mind to anticipate whether they will eventually appear in the buy list or fizzle out thru coming weeks.
The report for this week:
Report Summary:
This week:
Last week:
Summary Statements:
This is the first weekly report since the precious metals funds (commodity funds) started correcting, and they corrected big time. So, this report will give heart burn to those who entered the commodity funds investments bit late. Commodity funds corrected by 9.31% this week, and may correct further ahead. The pundits on precious metals now project that the bull time may return only by April 2026, and till then these funds may be on a yo-yo behaviour. Since the US market got solid footing thru the results season, and the crypto investments are back in the vougue due to financial institutions support, and also possible US-China and US-India trade deals, the precious metals losing shine short term.
Equity funds advanced for the week, but not at the intensity like last week.
Concern:
All is good with the US stock market and crypto market for now, which is a huge concern for the commodity fund investors short term. Challenge is whether to stay put with investments with return erosion for next 6 months or so, or quit with losses now for reentry later.
Market view at any time is half glass empty and half glass full. Therefore, there is opportunity hidden in concerns, and vice versa. Any negative incident impacting the US stock market can take away its current bullish stance.
Opportunity:
The US market is advancing with lower than anticipated inflation news, pending interest rate cut thru this week, result season confirming superior growth in the cutting edge sectors around tech, AI, energy, data center, semi conductor etc.
Because the financial behemoths like Black Rock, JP Morgan etc. are working towards re-engineering the US financial system to accomodate crypto into the main stream and provide new support to the sagging US dollar, the negative sentiment around the US de-dollarization is forgotten for now. As a result, the crypto market is booming and the stock market too. Further, Trump has reduced his aggressive tones around the tariff with China and US, therefore the market related to this is recovering both in the US and China/India.
1. Combined Funds Top 50
1.1. Combined Funds Top 50 Summary:
Since the Combined Top 50 lists for all the timelines (1W, 1M, 1Y) are dominated by the commodity funds, and they all corrected big time, there is a reduced performance level through this week. Also, for the very short term of 1W, we can see the emergence of other type of funds trying to take a new leadership position. I personally will wait for next week report to assess the new leaders which are not the commodity funds.
1.2. Combined Top 50
Green and Amber color marked mutual funds in the list: Since the focus is not only looking for the performance leaders, but also consistent above average performance across all the timelines, the funds are marked in Green or Amber to easily recognize consistency of performance among the leaders.
Green:
If the returns for all the available timelines from 1W thru 1Y is above the average within the list. The fund can not be marked green even with this rule if the returns are not available beyond a month, in which case the fund is marked as amber only.
Amber:
If the returns for all the available timelines from 1W thru 1Y is above the average within the list except for one timeline. For this exception, if any of the weekly and monthly returns are above average, then both timelines are considered to have above average
1.2.1. Combined Weekly Top 50
1.2.2. Combined Monthly Top 50
1.2.3. Combined Annual Top 50
Bearish reversal signs:
Both the weekly and monthly bottom 50 lists are leveraged to identify potential bearish reversal indications of the funds. This is done by marking above average annual return in bold and below average returns for the week and month. The funds with both weekly and monthly below average, but annual above average are marked in darker red, while the funds with only one of the weekly and monthly below averages but with above average annual return are marked in light red.
Bullish reversal signs:
Annual bottom 50 funds list is used to recognize potential bullish reversal. Any fund with above average return for both the week and the month in the list is marked as grey indicating potential bullish reversal.
Blog: NatsFunCorner! on Blogger
https://natsfuncorner.blogspot.com/
Other relevant Social Network Platform links:
WhatsApp Group: This WhatsApp group is a peer group, people active in investment and trading (including day trading) are here, exchanging their insight and views. Please note that there is no room for promotional participation here.
https://chat.whatsapp.com/GLj1DGwMLToGwSos7ZM3kR?mode=ac_tFB: https://www.facebook.com/nupadhya/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/nupadhya
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/natsupadhya/
Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/nupadhya
LinkedIn: https: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nupadhya/
Disclaimer:
- This is not a solicitation for mutual fund investment nor an advice. It is only an insight to help investment decisions based on the free MF performance data downloaded from Value Research. Investment decisions are only yours to make.
- Mutual fund investments are subjected to market risk. Read the prospectus of a mutual fund for all the risk information associated prior to investment.
- The author can not be responsible for the omissions or errors in the data from Value Research or the data processing errors if any by the author.
- All your investment decisions need to be based on your decision finally, with no blame to anyone else later.
No comments:
Post a Comment