(If you are new to this report, please read section "2. How to use this report" first.)
The report for this week:
Report Summary:
This week:
Last week:
Summary Statements:
While the US market remains bearish thru the last week, majority of Indian equity funds have shown bullish performance, given the hope of reduced tariff from the US, NDA winning Bihar election and better Q2 results overall.
The commodity funds recovered, sending a hope that month long pull back from the high is over. Most of the commodity funds are still bearish for the month in spite of weekly recovery, therefore it is recommended that one waits for them to completely vanish from the Monthly bottom list, before fresh investments.
Concern:
The US market has further risk of correction in spite of the end of US government shut down. This is primarily because of FED sending a signal that the Dec interest cut may not happen. Also, lack of key data around jobs etc. is a concern as to guage the economy out there. Therefore, globally there is a bearish sentiment, as the FII money tends to flow out to meet crisis in the US market.
Opportunity:
Two opportunities are emerging.
1. The precious metals are recovering, as the gold and silver purchases from the governments is resuming. But the market is quite volatile. The prices will behave like 2 step forward and 1 step backward ahead. The price movement thru the next week will give further confirmation for fresh investments, if the monthly underperformance of the commodity funds can be totally negated thru next week report. But, the pundits are more bullish than bearish on commodity prices ahead.
2. India Q2 results are better than Q1 results overall. Hence, there is selected focus on India equity ahead. The bullishness on Public Banks is tapering, but the overall bullishness on financial sector remains mildly. Also, there is cherry picking of value stocks overall, how these will aggregate on various fund types within equity is still work in progress. If the commodity prices shoot up, the commodity funds will dominate the Top 50 funds list ahead, indicating that equity funds will remain underperforming relatively. Overall, next week report becomes a trend setter for next 1 month at least.
1. Combined Funds Top 50
1.1. Combined Funds Top 50 Summary:
When it comes to the Top 50 summary, the Top 50 average advanced across the week, month and annual basis, thanks to commodity funds recovery and equity funds bullishness.
When it comes to the Bottom 50 summary, we would see remarkable improvement on Weekly Bottom 50 and Annual Bottom 50 for the same reasons, but Monthly Bottom 50 is worse thru this week, simply because it captures the average from the worst correction period of commodity funds in spite of recovery thru this week.
1.2. Combined Top 50
Green and Amber color marked mutual funds in the list: Since the focus is not only looking for the performance leaders, but also consistent above average performance across all the timelines, the funds are marked in Green or Amber to easily recognize consistency of performance among the leaders.
Green:
If the returns for all the available timelines from 1W thru 1Y is above the average within the list. The fund can not be marked green even with this rule if the returns are not available beyond a month, in which case the fund is marked as amber only.
Amber:
If the returns for all the available timelines from 1W thru 1Y is above the average within the list except for one timeline. For this exception, if any of the weekly and monthly returns are above average, then both timelines are considered to have above average
1.2.1. Combined Weekly Top 50
1.2.2. Combined Monthly Top 50
1.2.3. Combined Annual Top 50
Bearish reversal signs:
Both the weekly and monthly bottom 50 lists are leveraged to identify potential bearish reversal indications of the funds. This is done by marking above average annual return in bold and below average returns for the week and month. The funds with both weekly and monthly below average, but annual above average are marked in darker red, while the funds with only one of the weekly and monthly below averages but with above average annual return are marked in light red.
Bullish reversal signs:
Annual bottom 50 funds list is used to recognize potential bullish reversal. Any fund with above average return for both the week and the month in the list is marked as grey indicating potential bullish reversal.
2. How to use this report:
1. This report is useful to buy the funds on consistent performance leadership, sell the funds when they give signal of falling from such a leadership. It also gives a watchlist of underperforming funds showing sign of recovery, but not yet qualifying for buy.
The report combines all mutual fund types, and then seeks top 50 and bottom 50 funds. Therefore, best or worst performing funds are chosen across all fund types (equity, debt, hybrid and commodity).
The report summary is also useful on gauging market pulse ahead for regular stock investment and trading too.
2. Strategy: It is possible that one could aim to double the mutual fund returns over an year using this report than settling for average return concept using SIPs. Typically mutual fund returns on portfolio level are aimed at 12-15% per annum, this report attempts to help targeting 25-30% instead, but by not going for SIP, rather churn the portfolio to contain performance leaders as the market zigs and zags. In such an approach, the holding period of a fund may fall to as less as three months usually, even one month in some exceptional market moves. The price to pay in this approach is higher short term gain tax due to short term churn outs and also may be nominal exit load charges. But the superior return indicated above towards doubling annual yield has accounted for such an overhead.
3. This report is also useful for the stock traders and investors. This report gives insight at the level of summary and associated comments. Also, by identifying the bull and bear trends in the funds, one gets better pulse of the market for stock investment and trading. When someone notices a particular fund type in bearish mode or bullish mode here, but if one of the underlying stock shows different behavior, it is an alert to investigate this anomaly either as a spurious behavior or not.
Buy list:
This report highlights the top 50 mutual funds across all the fund types, for the periods 1 week, 1 month and 1year. Also, it marks the funds within these lists with green color if they are having above average return for all the timelines from 1M thru 1Y, highlighting consistency of performance leadership. For the new funds, it will not give green color just for having superior return for 1W and 1M, rather settles for Yellow, waiting for it to show superior performance beyond 1M.
It marks the funds as yellow, if missing above average returns just for one timeline. While giving yellow color, even if one of the 1W and 1M timeline is not above average, then both are considered as above average, which is to give some concession for very short term, giving the benefit of doubt, and not get spooked by the volatility very short term.
So, while considering the funds with yellow color, one should look for funds with average returns at shorter timelines as more favorable than the ones other way, meaning above average returns in later timelines but missing the boat in the shorter timelines.
Sell list:
The report highlights bottom 50 mutual funds for 1 W and 1M timelines. It highlights those funds having above average return in these lists for the year (meaning performance leaders within the recent losers) and having below average return for the 1W and 1M timeline. If below average for only one timeline across 1W and 1M, they are marked with lighter red, but if both of them below average, then marked darker red. The funds marked in red are the one to be sold before they lose further performance ahead. The money released from such sales can be used to buy the new performance leaders marked in green or yellow.
Why the funds with below average return are not marked in red if the annual average is below average?:
This is because the focus is to alert the bearish reversal sign only than including those who continue to remain in such a state across various weeks. It is understood that all the funds with below average annual return within the list are bearish and have return erosion risk by continuing to hold.
Watchlist:
When it comes to the annual bottom 50 list, it is used for bullish recovery signs. The funds which have above average return for both the 1W and 1M are considered as bullish recovery signs and are marked in grey. One should not buy these funds just for such recovery signs, but keep in mind to anticipate whether they will eventually appear in the buy list or fizzle out thru coming weeks.
Blog: NatsFunCorner! on Blogger
https://natsfuncorner.blogspot.com/
Other relevant Social Network Platform links:
WhatsApp Group: This WhatsApp group is a peer group, people active in investment and trading (including day trading) are here, exchanging their insight and views. Please note that there is no room for promotional participation here.
https://chat.whatsapp.com/GLj1DGwMLToGwSos7ZM3kR?mode=ac_tFB: https://www.facebook.com/nupadhya/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/nupadhya
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/natsupadhya/
Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/nupadhya
LinkedIn: https: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nupadhya/
Disclaimer:
- This is not a solicitation for mutual fund investment nor an advice. It is only an insight to help investment decisions based on the free MF performance data downloaded from Value Research. Investment decisions are only yours to make.
- Mutual fund investments are subjected to market risk. Read the prospectus of a mutual fund for all the risk information associated prior to investment.
- The author can not be responsible for the omissions or errors in the data from Value Research or the data processing errors if any by the author.
- All your investment decisions need to be based on your decision finally, with no blame to anyone else later.
