(If you are new to this report, please read section "2. How to use this report" first.)
The report for this week:
Report Summary:
This week:
Last week:
Summary Statements:
NVdia results in the US failed to raise the negative sentiments in the US market, which has cast as a general global negative sentiment for the short term. As a result, all types of funds except for debt funds corrected thru this week. Before December 31st, there will be a bottoming up of this negative sentiment and some pullback recovery of the market globally, but it is difficult to time it. Even with a pullback recovery, it will be a window of opportunity for many to get out of global equity exposure, as the next six months after December can be nightmare.
When it comes to Indian market, Indian market will keep compensating for the global negative sentiment with its own bullish tendencies, as a result,we may have more of a sideways movement ahead.
When it comes to commodity funds, they corrected after last week pullback recovery, this week too, they have appeared with negative returns for the whole month. Further, they have appeared in the weekly and monthly bottom 50 lists with clear bearish signals. So, there is short term uncertainity with them, they can bounce back from these levels as short term bottom, or they may erode further for a week or two more ahead.
Concern:
The suspecion that the US AI buble is not sustainable has become more stronger thru this week, in spite of positive Nvidia results. Two factors contributing to this: 1. The US does not have concrete plans to ensure 1 GW of additional energy short term to make the AI data centers running. So, instead of money, it is going to be the energy gap which will throw the wrench short term. 2. Nvdia results are analysed to denote accounting gimmicks to inflate the rate of growth, which can be a risk ahead.
The concern with Commodity is only for very short term, which is that when the equity correction is serious, the funds from commodity too move out to address the margin pressure. The commodity prices will shoot up with vengeance once the liquidity issues of the correcting market get settled.
Warning: In the India context, investment in "Digital Gold" is discouraged, which is outside the ETFs and MFs mentioned here. This is mainly because the Digital Gold investments are not regulated. There is some pricing risk with ETFs and MFs too with volatility, as the price difference between the physical metal and demat metal can be of 20% difference due to physical supply presusres, which can impact short term investors as a overhead of the trade.
For Gold investments, I personally like Govt Sovereign Gold bonds, which can be bought and sold like a stock in the secondary market, using one's trading account. One needs to check for how much secondary market premium one needs to pay, while buying. During bullish period, this premium shoots up, so prudence is to buy them thru the correction periods like now. Whatever premium paid can be a write off post the bullish period vanishing in the medium to long term. So, treat premium paid as an overhead of the investment.
I am still debating as to whether to go for authentic Silver brick (need to be stored in the bank locker) Vs. the Silver ETFs / MFs. Will share the clarity when it emerges.
Opportunity:
The commodity funds will remain the best opportunity ahead, once the current bottoming out gets complete in a week or two. We can anticipate, at the minimun, the rate of returns similar to the last two years. On an optimal case basis, there are projections of gold and silver appreciating four times the current prices through the next two years. But these prices will be volatile, so a trader will find it hard than the investor to stay put with the volatility.
India equity opportunity will act only as a balm to the global equity pains ahead. It is difficult to measure and project how much is the pain and how much is the relief against the pain. One needs to be sensitive to the sector level preferences when it comes to India equity recovery ahead. As on this week, it was more of IT, Auto, Financial sector, and to some extent Textiles. This is mainly due to the anticipation of Indo US trade agreement. I personally, treat India equity market as neutral, given the overriding global concerns.
1. Combined Funds Top 50
1.1. Combined Funds Top 50 Summary:
When we compare the Top 50 averages and Bottom 50 averages across the two weeks, the Top 50 averages faded significantly this week across the week, month and annual basis. The bottom 50 averages turned further negative for the weekly bottom 50.
We would remain uncertain as to next coming week, after reading this report, both on the bullish or bearish front. I personally not adding any new investment, nor exiting the ones invested.
1.2. Combined Top 50
Green and Amber color marked mutual funds in the list: Since the focus is not only looking for the performance leaders, but also consistent above average performance across all the timelines, the funds are marked in Green or Amber to easily recognize consistency of performance among the leaders.
Green:
If the returns for all the available timelines from 1W thru 1Y is above the average within the list. The fund can not be marked green even with this rule if the returns are not available beyond a month, in which case the fund is marked as amber only.
Amber:
If the returns for all the available timelines from 1W thru 1Y is above the average within the list except for one timeline. For this exception, if any of the weekly and monthly returns are above average, then both timelines are considered to have above average
1.2.1. Combined Weekly Top 50
1.2.2. Combined Monthly Top 50
1.2.3. Combined Annual Top 50
Bearish reversal signs:
Both the weekly and monthly bottom 50 lists are leveraged to identify potential bearish reversal indications of the funds. This is done by marking above average annual return in bold and below average returns for the week and month. The funds with both weekly and monthly below average, but annual above average are marked in darker red, while the funds with only one of the weekly and monthly below averages but with above average annual return are marked in light red.
Bullish reversal signs:
Annual bottom 50 funds list is used to recognize potential bullish reversal. Any fund with above average return for both the week and the month in the list is marked as grey indicating potential bullish reversal.
2. How to use this report:
1. This report is useful to buy the funds on consistent performance leadership, sell the funds when they give signal of falling from such a leadership. It also gives a watchlist of underperforming funds showing sign of recovery, but not yet qualifying for buy.
The report combines all mutual fund types, and then seeks top 50 and bottom 50 funds. Therefore, best or worst performing funds are chosen across all fund types (equity, debt, hybrid and commodity).
The report summary is also useful on gauging market pulse ahead for regular stock investment and trading too.
2. Strategy: It is possible that one could aim to double the mutual fund returns over an year using this report than settling for average return concept using SIPs. Typically mutual fund returns on portfolio level are aimed at 12-15% per annum, this report attempts to help targeting 25-30% instead, but by not going for SIP, rather churn the portfolio to contain performance leaders as the market zigs and zags. In such an approach, the holding period of a fund may fall to as less as three months usually, even one month in some exceptional market moves. The price to pay in this approach is higher short term gain tax due to short term churn outs and also may be nominal exit load charges. But the superior return indicated above towards doubling annual yield has accounted for such an overhead.
3. This report is also useful for the stock traders and investors. This report gives insight at the level of summary and associated comments. Also, by identifying the bull and bear trends in the funds, one gets better pulse of the market for stock investment and trading. When someone notices a particular fund type in bearish mode or bullish mode here, but if one of the underlying stock shows different behavior, it is an alert to investigate this anomaly either as a spurious behavior or not.
Buy list:
This report highlights the top 50 mutual funds across all the fund types, for the periods 1 week, 1 month and 1year. Also, it marks the funds within these lists with green color if they are having above average return for all the timelines from 1M thru 1Y, highlighting consistency of performance leadership. For the new funds, it will not give green color just for having superior return for 1W and 1M, rather settles for Yellow, waiting for it to show superior performance beyond 1M.
It marks the funds as yellow, if missing above average returns just for one timeline. While giving yellow color, even if one of the 1W and 1M timeline is not above average, then both are considered as above average, which is to give some concession for very short term, giving the benefit of doubt, and not get spooked by the volatility very short term.
So, while considering the funds with yellow color, one should look for funds with average returns at shorter timelines as more favorable than the ones other way, meaning above average returns in later timelines but missing the boat in the shorter timelines.
Sell list:
The report highlights bottom 50 mutual funds for 1 W and 1M timelines. It highlights those funds having above average return in these lists for the year (meaning performance leaders within the recent losers) and having below average return for the 1W and 1M timeline. If below average for only one timeline across 1W and 1M, they are marked with lighter red, but if both of them below average, then marked darker red. The funds marked in red are the one to be sold before they lose further performance ahead. The money released from such sales can be used to buy the new performance leaders marked in green or yellow.
Why the funds with below average return are not marked in red if the annual average is below average?:
This is because the focus is to alert the bearish reversal sign only than including those who continue to remain in such a state across various weeks. It is understood that all the funds with below average annual return within the list are bearish and have return erosion risk by continuing to hold.
Watchlist:
When it comes to the annual bottom 50 list, it is used for bullish recovery signs. The funds which have above average return for both the 1W and 1M are considered as bullish recovery signs and are marked in grey. One should not buy these funds just for such recovery signs, but keep in mind to anticipate whether they will eventually appear in the buy list or fizzle out thru coming weeks.
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Disclaimer:
- This is not a solicitation for mutual fund investment nor an advice. It is only an insight to help investment decisions based on the free MF performance data downloaded from Value Research. Investment decisions are only yours to make.
- Mutual fund investments are subjected to market risk. Read the prospectus of a mutual fund for all the risk information associated prior to investment.
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- All your investment decisions need to be based on your decision finally, with no blame to anyone else later.
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