Friday, March 22, 2024
Top 50 and Bottom 50 Funds based on 1M performance as on March 23 2024
Saturday, March 16, 2024
Top 50 and Bottom 50 mutual funds based on last 1M Return across all types of funds - As on March 16, 2024
5. As per the current trend, one can park excess money in top performing commodity funds, for returns superior than fixed deposits.
6. We do not know as to how long and how deep this bearishness will cast on equity funds. May be, equity funds will pop in top 50 after one or two weeks, or not.
7. We get one more chance of Top 50 and Bottom 50 report before this financial year ends for any liquidation of existing mutual fund investments for tax purposes. I am not making any recommendation as to such decisions as I may not be qualified for the same, and also it depends on one's investment strategy. For example, one committed to the Systemic Investment Plan will continue to make regular payments and get more units for those payments due to reduced NAV of such funds.
8. But I am very clear as to my investment approach. Looking at the bottom 50 funds report, the smallcap and microcap are way too underpeforming, and it is unlikely that they will see a reversal soon, and if there is any reversal, then we can see so in the weekly analysis ahead. Since I have next 15 days to liquidate some of my existing MF investments for FY 2024 tax adjustments, I am going to liquidate all pure play small cap and micro cap funds fully, because I will keep this money in the sideline to reenter when they start popping up in the top 50 performance again. Also, given the financial year end and no projection of quick revival of smallcap and microcap, many people like me going for liquidation can create a run on the bank condition on such funds, so we may find worse performance of these funds through next two weeks before things become better for them. Again, this is not what I am asking you to do, as a disclaimer.
Friday, March 8, 2024
Top 50 Mutual Funds based on 1M Return as on March 8, 2024
1. Market is correcting on midcap and smallcap, certain large caps are taking the top benchmark indices to new level. So, we can expect major churn out in the top 50. Since the commodities like Gold and Silver are doing well, commodity funds have popped up into top 50, but they should be considered as a replacement for FD and not equity. Hybrid and debt funds dint make it to top 50 funds list yet.
2. The weekly list of top 50 funds is useful for the fresh investments. Since, the average of top 50 funds across different timelines is given at the bottom, one should consider consistent performance across all timelines, which is basically having the return higher than top 50 averages across all the timelines. Such funds are bolded this time.
They are as follows:
- DSP Nifty PSU Bank ETF
- HDFC Nifty PSU Bank ETF
- ICICI Prudential Nifty PSU Bank ETF
- Kotak Nifty PSU Bank ETF
- Nippon India ETF Nifty PSU Bank BeES
- CPSE ETF.
3. If one wants to compromise on below average of top 50 returns on 1w or 1M levels, a dozen more funds look reasonable, even in the list of funds going out of top 50. For example, Quant Large & Midcap Fund came short on 1M return, but has good 1W return, so it may be a candidate to consider, else, if large cap rally continues, it might make it to top 50 next week.
4. Since Gold and Silver are in the up move, one can start considering such funds as a replacement for FD. In such case, I find Axis Gold ETF having better returns across all timelines, beating FD returns.
5. As guessed last week, Quant Fund family is getting impacted with the latest market dynamics in the sense that not a single fund made it to top 50 this time.
6. The various averages at the end are very useful to summarise the market action, across lat 1 week, and last 28 days. As one can see that average returns are fading across all timelines, when compared to last week.
7. With market dynamics being very volatile now a days, this weekly report based on top 1M return is becoming more and more useful for fresh investment considerations and to readjust Mutual fund return expectations based on new market dynamics.
8. I am bit disappointed that certain hybrid funds could not make to the top 50 list. This is becasue, the aggressive equity portion in such funds were impacted by the midcap and smallcap corrections, so much so that other thematic funds did better to come into top 50.
9. As the market dynamics change, new funds are being launched with new themes. Some of such funds keep popping up in top 50, but with no 6M and 1Y track record. One can take risk on such funds too. For example, ICICI Prudential Nifty PSU Bank ETF does not have a track record beyond 6M returns, but all the returns upto 6M timeline are good, so can be considered, hence, I have already included in my list of investment elegibilities by making the fund name bold.
10. Remember, for your monthly investments, you get to see this kind of weekly report four times, so you can stagger your monthly fresh investments across four weekly reports. Last week, Quant Infrastructure Fund made it to the eligibility by having above average returns in all the timelines, but it has fallen from the top 50 this week, with below average returns both on 1M and 1W timelines, but it does not mean that investment made last week was a mistake. It might return to top 50 in weeks ahead or it might not. So, focus every week is about new investment focus, and not to second guess on prior investments.
11. For myself, the performance target benchmark is half of the top fund return for 1Y. In this report it is CPSE ETF which has given 106%, half of which is 53%. But the top 50 average 1Y return this week is 49.55, which means that there is a risk of not achieving my previously set benchmark, if the market volatility continues. In such case, I will settle for 70% of top 50 average = 70%.49.55 = 35% for now. Please note that the benchmarks will keep changing as market dynamics shape up week to week.
Friday, March 1, 2024
Top 50 Indian Mutual Funds based on 1M Return as on March 1, 2024
Saturday, February 24, 2024
Debt & Commodity Funds Returns Analysis across different short and long term time lines
Commentary:
1. Debt funds are meant to give returns slightly higher than the Fixed Deposits. Debt funds can have higher risk than fixed deposits, and tend to give superior returns when the interest rates are falling. Debt funds return are primarily depending on interest of debt instruments, but the face value of a debt instrument can fall when interest rates are going up. Therefore, it is possible that a debt fund can also give a negative return through such periods.
2. Debt funds had a taxation advantage till March 2023, as indexation benefit was available. With that removed, the taxation benefits are gone, debt fund incomes are taxed at par with Fixed Deposits, as part of income.
3. For this analysis, both the debt funds and commodity funds are included, which are not included for the equity funds analysis.
4. Since, there is an expectation that prime interest rates are likely to fall from June 2024, there will be some interest in debt funds in coming months, to beat the returns of fixed deposits. So, some money may flow from fixed deposits to debt funds. Hence this analysis as a baseline before the debt fund attractiveness goes up in couple of months ahead.
5. For an equity investor, there is an opportunity to ride on debt instruments through hybrid funds. These hybrid funds can be aggressive on equity, conservative on equity, or can use balanced or of multi-asset approach. Hybrid funds are always included in my equity funds analysis. I would believe that only when the hybrid funds start beating the performance of pure equity funds, it is time for us to wake up to the reality of debt funds to leverage. When there is a correction in equity market causing negative return on mutual funds, the hybrid funds and debt funds will start looking attractive.
6. Therefore, with the tax savings advantage gone, one could say that debt funds can be considered to replace FDs when they become more attractive than FDs, and hybrid funds to replace pure equity mutual funds when the market starts correcting leading to negative returns on pure equity mutual funds.
7. There is inherent risk in debt instruments, and this risk is reflected through the credit rating of the instrument. But, this risk is managed overall at the mutual fund level. Therefore, it is always better to choose a debt mutual fund than a singular debt instrument like NCD etc. to manage the risk better.
8. Credit Risk Fund are a type of debt fund, where the focus is to invest on high risk debt instruments, leading to better returns as the interest rate associated are very high. Here, the strategy is to manage the high risk across the portfolio level, and ensure better returns than the usual debt funds. Typically, this works well when the economy and market are upwards, but when shit hits the fan, such funds can give massive negative returns. Since India market has been doing well since last three years, one particular credit risk fund has given more than 40% annualized return on a 3 year basis, which is amazing, but still pales against equity fund returns, given the level of risks are similar.
9. Personally, I have ensured my life style through FDs, and enjoying an average of 8% interest rate on them, hence I have ignored the debt funds so far, focusing purely on equity funds for MF investments. But, imagine that FD interest rates could be falling to 6% in future, and the debt funds giving superior 10% return, even I will be jumping into debt funds mode.
10. When it comes to the risk of pure equity funds risks, where the fund returns become negative on huge market corrections, my strategy is to shift to hybrid funds for fresh investments, as they will be popping on the top of the table in my weekly mutual funds analysis. I did this debt fund analysis for one time now, for me to get a grip of historic realities and a baseline benchamark before interest rates start falling in coming months.
11. Fair to say, that keep reading my weekly mutual fund analysis report, as it gives a good mirror to equity market dynamics, and your fresh investments are automatically adjusted to the new market realities, whether up or down.
12. Will consider a monthly debt & commodity funds analysis as they become attractive for fresh investments. If Gold invest becomes attractive, it will pop up in this monthly report as commodity funds to are included.
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Top returns of Debt and Commodity Funds, both short term and long term
A. Short Term
Section1 - 1 Week Return
Section 6: 3Y Return
Section 9: 15Y and 20Y Return
Mutual Fund Returns Analysis across different short and long term time lines - Useful to enhance our perspectives on mutual fund investments both short and long term!
Commentary:
This is an attempt to view top performing mutual funds based on different time lines. All the data is from Value Research, and only the equity and hybrid funds are considered here.
Value research gives mutual fund data in two perspectives, short term and long term. It does not give the perspectives with both the short terms and long terms together. For value research, short term is presented in terms of 1W, 1M, 3M, 6M and 1Y. Long term is represented in terms of 3Y, 5Y, 10Y, 15Y and 20Y.
Ideally, I could have merged all timelines into different columns in one sheet, but that required combining two sheets using VLOOKUP. Since I use free office software and it does not give me that function, I have done this presentation this way, for my convenience.
If you have patience to combine the short term and long term perspectives into one single sheet, you can download the data from Value Research from these links, while downloading you need to select all Equity Funds once, and all Hybrid funds next, so you need to combine two worksheets once in each of Short Term and Long Term category, and then you need to integrate the two resulting worksheets at column level using VLOOKUP function.
Data source:
Here, one needs to switch between Short Term and Long Term buttons given at the row where download to Excel option is given, and make separate excel down loads across two timelines.
The mutual fund returns have become far more attractive in India since the last three years. Therefore, we can see funds with 3Y return as high as 52.58%. As we move the time window farther, the return percentage reduces, for two reasons. One is that both the market and the funds were not evolved like now a days. Second is that mutual fund performances tend to saturate over time like the index returns. Typically, index based mutual funds tend to follow the index level returns with 1 to 2% overhead due to expense ratio. Also, we can see that as the time line is stretched far before, number of available mutual funds also dwindle. Also, here, we do not know the history of Indian mutual funds beyond Value Research boot strap, still we have 20 years performance data in this report.
Those who have been in the market for more than two decades are very much accustomed to 15-20% long term returns as healthy for mutual funds. Folks like me who are new to the fund investments, are very much spoiled by the recent top returns of mutual funds, and demand very high annual returns for the current market conditions. While the old tigers are conditioned not to aim for more than 15 - 20% annual returns, we the new bees are aiming for 60% annual returns while such previlege lasts at least.
Here, I have used the following cut off benchmarks for the top performing funds by timeline:
1W : >= 2.5% return
1M : >= 10% return
3M : >= 20% return
6M : >= 35% return
1Y : >= 60% return
3Y : >= 30% return
5Y: >= 25% return
10Y: >= 20% return
15Y : No benchmark, very few in the list
20Y : No benchmark, very few in the list
Take a ride with different timelines, and give a bow to the top performers for each timeline. Also, note down the long standing high performers of yester years, and how the mutual fund market has expanded significantly through the last one decade. The competition for top rankings will only go up further from here.
To put things in further perspective, I have quickly calculated nifty returns for the similar timelines by fetching approximate nifty levels from the charts over different timelines as follows:
Based on these levels, I have calculated nifty returns, and compared with highest return from a top fund for the same timeline, and a typical MF return at portfolio level at half of top fund return. Take a look:
My analysis on this:
1. Top performing mutual fund is way ahead of nifty returns for short term, but it starts falling closer to nifty returns for longer timelines. I have ignored 15Y and 20Y timelines for mutual funds as the mutual fund market then was not mature.
2. What is an useful practical benchmark for our portfolio returns is in the last column, which is half of top performing fund return. This is some what close to the intuitive benchmarks I have used for marking top funds in the report below.
3. One insight going forward is that Indian stock market and therefore mutual fund market have been maturing considerably through last few years. Also, there is a good chance that the long term returns from India could be far better than they were 10 years before. Therefore, there is a need for the investors to adjust the self esteem and expectations higher into the future, and upgrade the expectations beyond the historic benchmarks, and set it somewhere in between what they were and whatever sizzling level resulted through the last three years.
4. Bottom line, through this analysis, I am further convinced that it is not crazy to aim typical 45% annual return from our mutual fund portfolio as per the current market dynamics. We need to adjust this expectation level if the dynamics cools off ahead. Rest is the discipline of execution and portfolio management.
Browse the rest of the blog, and take whaever insight or inspiration you like to take with you for further steps.
Best wishes
Nataraja Upadhya
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Part A: Short Term - 1Y, 6M, 3M, 1M, 1W
Section 1: Top Funds based on higher return over 1 Year; Return >= 60%
Section 2: Top funds based on top return over last six months; Return >= 35%
Section 3: Top funds based on top return over last three months; Return >= 20%
Section 4: Top funds based on top return over last one month Return >= 10%
Section 5: Top Funds based on high 1 Week return i.e. >=2.5%
Part II: Long Term
Section 6: Top funds based on top return over last 3 years; Return >= 30%Section 7: Top funds based on top return over last 5 years; Return >= 25%
Section 8: Top funds based on top return over last 10 years; Return >= 20%
Section 9: Top funds based on top return over last 15 years;
Section 10: Top funds based on top return over last 20 years;
Friday, February 23, 2024
Top 50 funds based on last one month return as on Feb 24 2024
1. The average 1M return of top 50 funds is 13.58%, which was 11.65% last week, which means that top 50 funds doing better than last one week.
The average 1M return of the same top fifty funds 28 days back were 6.08%, which means these funds accumulated accelerating gains thru last 28 days.
The average 1M return of top 50 funds as on Jan 27, which is 28 days back was 7.7%, again, confirming that riding on top 50 funds does give glimpse of better performers based on last one month return for the current market conditions. If the top 50 funds average based on 1M returns is an index like Nifty 50, the mutual funds at this index level are still doing great, the bull run is still on, though there is a churn out in the top 50 list.
2. When it comes to new investment decisions, it is recommended that one looks for consistent top performance across different time lines from 1M through 1Y, the top performers are highlighted in bold, based on the following benchmark which is 1Y Return >= 60%, 6M Return >=35%, 3M Return >=20%, and 1M Return in Top 50.
3. This list should be used mainly for buying new investments, not for hold and sell decisions.
4. The rows in red are the funds which were in top 50 28 days back, but have fallen off the top 50 list as on this week. Here too, one may see consistent performers except for the 1M return. One needs to weight whether the 1M return for these will improve, or further erode through coming weeks, so definitely these funds deserve Hold, if not fresh Buy. Even Fresh Buy can be considered if there is faith that they will make it to top 50 again ahead based on anticipated market dynamics ahead.
5. Theory here is that, by focusing on top 50 funds with consistent top returns for all time lines upto 1Y, one gets to ride on the most recent bull trend of the funds, which will help to enhance the investment returns for the fresh investments as the trend tends to continue till it stops. So, if the benchmark here for top 1Y return is 60%, and one is happy with 30% annual return for MF investments in general for the current market dynamics, this approach for fresh investments may enhance the portfolio level return from 30% to 45% very likely.
6. Whem it comes to Sell decisions on low performing funds, the performance benchmarks used here are useful for evaluation. Further one needs to take judgement call as to whether hold a fund beyond 1 Year to save capital gain and Exit load overheads. (One will pay short term gain of 15% for holding for less than one year, and pay long term gain of 10% only for holding more than one year. This 5% difference and the exit load burden of upto 2% is a consideration for selling under performing funds before one year completion.)
7. One can see some trends in the top fifty as follows:
- PSU Bank Funds have come back in to vougue. PSU Funds are still attractive.
- One large cap fund has made it back to top 50, and it is from the Quant family. Bravo! But, it is still an under performer against 6M and 1Y performance benchmarks.
- Certain pharma, healthcare, power and infra funds have fallen from top 50.
- Quant family has improved its hegemony in top 50 funds list thru this week, there are 12 among top 50. Of course, there is a churn out as to which are these 12 funds.
- The second top fund house here is ICICI Prudential, 6 funds in top 50.
8. CPSE ETF regains top spot for 1Y return, which 110% and triggering tears, tears of joy for those riding on it, and tears of lost opportunity for those missing on it. Interestingly, this is a quirk of Value Research, as this is more of an ETF than a mutual fund, if you want to invest in it. So, you will need a demat account to pursue this ETF.
110% annual return is the bearer of the flag for India continuing to shine in the markets, even through the MF path.
Mera Bhaarath Mahaan!
9. Again I challenge positional traders to beat the 1Y return benchmark of 60%, and the short term traders to beat the annual return benchmark of 100%, if there is underperformance in your portfolio against these benchmarks, please consider yielding to mutual funds path to save you agony and time!
10. Standard disclaimers apply. Past pefromance is no guarantee for the performance ahead. But, in mutual funds arena, consistent performance across various timelines is a good bet to have.
Best regards,
Nataraja Upadhya











