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Disclaimer:

- This is not a solicitation for mutual fund investment nor an advice. It is only an insight to help investment decisions based on the free MF performance data downloaded from Value Research. Investment decisions are only yours to make.

- Mutual fund investments are subjected to market risk. Read the propsectus of a mutual fund for all the risk information associated prior to investment.

- The author can not be responsible for the ommissions or errors in the data from Value Research or the data processing errors if any by the author.

- All your investment decisions need to be based on your decision finally, with no blame to anyone else later.

Tuesday, September 24, 2024

Special Top 50 MF Report in the middle of the Market Week as on Sept 24, 2024

Commentary:

1. This special mid week report was created with the following objectives.

1.1. I felt that the last week's Top 50 report could be a mis-lead as the further bullish behavior could throw out new leaders out there. Now, we have two sessions in this week, taking a dip stick now is a good idea, as we can invest on new performance leaders right away with big money than lose out another three productive trading days, having to wait for the weekend.

1.2. I will be busy this weekend, hence the regular report could be delayed as late as next Wednesday. That way, one is not made to wait for more than a week when too many excitement is there in the market, for good mostly.

1.3. Since we are in the beginning of a bull run, very short term summary too is importnant to make some investment decisions as the very short term behaviour will become a bell weather for new investment decisions. As a result, for equity we are comparing both top 50 and bottom 50, for all three critical timelines, 1W, 1M and 1Y.

1.4. Since 1W timeline is made critical for this report, we will be considering 1W timeline too for decisions to mark Green and Amber this time.

1.5. Curiosity is there as to how the post US Fed interest rate cut is impacting the other fund types also. While Debt fund Monthly Top 50 list is given out of curiosity, Hybrid Annual Top 50 list is skipped from this report for having less value.

2. Analysing the Equity Top and Bottom 50 summary above, the following insight can be inferred.

2.1. Weekly Top 50 has given ferocious 3.8% weekly return which is equivalent to 52*3.8% = 197.6% annualized return, which is way too attractive, and hence the Weekly Top 50 can be looked into as a Bell Weather.

2.2. Monthly Top 50 monthly return has not improved much, which means there is a leadership churn out here, so we need to see the resulting churn out influencing fresh investments.

2.3. Top 50 annual return for the month is still lower than all equity funds average, which is a concern, which means annual leaders are laggards when it comes to monthly return, but the good news is that they have given better weekly return than overall average, bottom 50 annual have given still better weekly and monthly averages, which means broad based bull run recovery on equity funds, and both the laggards and leaders are improving their returns at annual basis, however the weekly & monthly Top 50 and Bottom 50 is the best telescope to make investment decisions.

2.4. The annual Top 50 annual return has now improved above 70%, which is again a confirmation of bull run impact on a broad base.

2.5. Monthly Top 50 equity funds annual average is bit lower than the overall equity average, which means many past annual under performers are getting into this top 50 list. Looking at the weekly Top 50 annual returns, the presence of past annual under performers is much higher. What this means is that, we need to further discount the role of Annual Top 50 in the investment decisions as a new trend is more dominating right now.

2.6. There is no point in adding all the funds from all the fund types, this work will be avoided going forward, rather fund type level more detailed summary will be given in the future, helping better insights for investment decisions.

3. Looking at the Weekly Top 50, since we are now considering all timelines including Weekly to mark funds in green or amber, funds become green only if they have above average on all timelines from 1W thru 1Y, and amber only if they miss out on one timeline. It is fair to say that though no fund is in green, all these funds in amber are worthy of new investments, at least for short term, say next two months. These funds belong to Realty, Consumption, Auto and Financial Services. So, if this is going to be proven to be a bell weather for short term (need to see in future weeks), we do have an initial indication.

4. Weekly Bottom 50 list is created to look at the very short term under performance leaders and it is filled with Healthcare, IT/Digital/Tech and some SmallCap funds. This is more of a breather from the superior performance than a reversal, but for short term, one need to be cautious on these fund types as they may relatively underperform compared to the new leaders.

5. The one in the red are those with below average weekly return or monthly return within the list, and above average annual return within the list. It is just that their underperformance very short term is far more significant, that is all. Those focused on long term hold may avoid sell and continue to hold, but those with limited funds wanting to do better short term even at the cost of additional tax burden of short term gain may consider selling these funds only to move freed up money to more bullish choices short term.

6. When it comes to Monthly Top 50, the rules for Green and Amber are same as before, which is that Weekly returns are ignored for the same. However, for fresh investment decisions, I will consider both Green and Amber with above average weekly return this time. Some consumption funds are eligible as a result, and they are also there in the Weekly Top 50 with Amber.

7. Purpose of the Equity Monthly Bottom 50 remains to sense the bearish reversal of better performing funds. This time onwards, rule is further refined. In the past, it need to have below average return either weekly or monthly basis in addition to above average annual return. This time onwards, it needs to have both weekly and monthly return below average in addition to above average annual return. With this, a few only will be marked as bearish reversing. Even with such tight rule, HDFC Defence Fund is caught here in bearish reversal mode, though it has positive weekly return, which happens to be below average. What it means is that this fund is still a underperformer compared to many out there. SBI PSU Fund and CPSE ETF escaped this infamy this time due to above average weekly returns, they would have been marked red per old rule.

8. When it comes Equity Annual Top 50, this time the rule for Green and Amber remains the same except for one relaxation which may be carried further ahead. The rule now is that the returns from 1M thru 1Y need to be above average in all timelines for green, and a miss out on one timline allowed for Amber, the new relaxation is that weekly above average return can be considered as a substitute only where monthly returns are below average. As a result, CPSE ETF makes it to the Amber, else it could have missed out. Bandhan Small Cap fund is in Green, but it is slowing down on weekly return. So, the safer bets are those with above average weekly returns also. I might incorporate above average weekly return as mandatory going forward in all Top 50 lists for green status, but giving more margin of under performance for Amber saying any of the above average return across week or month will do. Let me decide on this next report. Based on this, may be I do not need to repeat Weekly Top 50 and Bottom 50 going forward.

9. Equity Annual Bottom 50 is to sense the bullish reversal. Rule is kept the same, which is to have an above average weekly return or the monthly return. Depiction is changed, the concerned funds are marked in grey, indicating they are coming towards being in Black.

10. Above is the Hybrid Top 50 summary, by week, month and year. There is less volitility here unlike Equity funds as to returns. Hence, one Top 50 report is enough, which is the Monthly Top 50 report, the Annual Top 50 will be discontinued. One can notice improvements in the Monthly and Annual Retun averages due to better weekly returns.

11. Looking at the Hybrid Monthly Top 50, the rule for green and amber status, going forward from this report changes in the sense that even above average weekly return is required for Green along with the same for 1M thru 1Y too. But, a relaxation for Amber is that either an Above Average Weekly or Monthly can suffice among themselves to count. No example is available to illustrate this relaxation in Amber rule, so next time.

12. Debt Funds Top 50 summary is given for week, month, and annual. The improvements across are gradual and nothing much to tack about.

13. Out of curiosity, as a one time deal, Debt Monthly Top 50 list is given. The rule for green and amber is the same as that for hybrid, meaning to include weekly return too for green, and some relaxation that only one of monthly or weekly above average is good enough to count for Amber.

14. Since there are only 53 commodity funds, no point in discussing different Top 50 funds here. The new rule for Green and Amber is applied here too like for Hybrid and Debt funds.

15. Whether it is a weekly Top 50 MF report or special MF report, these are availble in the blog indicated below. Blogs are also rendered as videos for those not prefering to read.

Blog: NatsFunCorner! on Blogger

Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/nupadhya

LinkedIn: https: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nupadhya/

Disclaimer:

- Mutual fund investments are subjected to market risk. Read the propsectus of a mutual fund for all the risk information associated prior to investment.

- The author can not be responsible for the ommissions or errors in the data from Value Research or the data processing errors if any by the author.

- All your investment decisions need to be based on your decision finally, with no blame to anyone else later.

Friday, September 20, 2024

Top 50 Mutual Fund Analysis for the week ending Sept 20, 2024

Commentary:

1. Mutual funds of all types had a positive week as the weekly average has been positive.

2. Monthly Top 50 Equity funds maintain their monthly return momentum.

3. Significant weekly return on Annual Bottom 50 equity funds indicate broader recovery of under performing mutual funds.

4. The overall equity funds monthly returns average is reduced from 5.55 to 3.64 this week, which means the equity funds bit underperformed compared to last week, and there is a leadership churn out on the Equity Monthly Top 50.

5. The overall equity funds annual returns average is improved from 40.82 to 41.74, which means that there is broader recovery of annually leading mutual funds in general, meaning the mutual fund investments may look better attractive for short term ahead.

6. Annual Top 50 equity funds gave monthly return which is not only below the equity monthly return average, but also below the all types mf monthly return average, which means that annual return leaders are under further threat of relative under performance.

7. Looking at the Monthly Top 50 mutual funds, the funds in green are those with above average returns from all timelines from 1M thru 1Y within the list, the funds in amber are those with above average returns from all timelines from 1M thru 1Y except for one timeline within them. The one in green are definite choices for new investments short term, the one in amber too can be considered if their short term returns (1W and 1M) look relatively attractive.

8. The Bandhan Small Cap fund which has been the performing star for last one month or so has disappered from Monthly Top 50 altogether. So, it moves to Hold category now. Need to see whether it will pop up back to Monthly Top 50 ahead, which becomes a bell weather for Small Cap funds leadership accordingly. (Data in itself will not speak, our relative analysis will make it speak more and the relative analysis is not only within the list, but also the list from the last week and the next week. I do not highlight all such insights, only mention what catches my eye, but a far more attention may lead to more insights for the committed reader).

9. Last week, there was a special MF analysis, to appreciate the returns leadership of Equity funds by sub type. The Consumption funds came top ranked. That is further confirmed thru this week, as many consumption funds not only came into Monthly Top 50, and many of them made to the green or amber list. It is safe therefore to bet on consumption funds short term, till they vanish the Monthly Top 50 list.

10. Since the last of the week ended with promise of broader recovery of equities in coming days, we will see more competition within the Monthly Top 50 for superior return positions with more varied fund types appearing. So, watch the fun out ahead.

11. The Equity Monthly Bottom 50 list is exploited to fish out bearish reversal of top performing equity funds, and usually some fishes get into this net as an insight to leverage. The list highlists above average annual returns in Black Bold, and the below average weekly and monthly returns in Bold Red. The funds having above average annual return, and having below average return for the week or month are highlighted in Bold Red, and they are potentially prone to further correction ahead short time, so caution. The some such high performing funds caught here are the PSU funds, CPSE fund, Bharath 22 fund, Quant Mid Cap and Value Fund etc. We will see far more changes in this bottom 50 list in the coming weeks as the high return competition will push some under performers down into bottom 50 list.

12. Bandhan Small Cap is still in the green on the Annual Top 50 list. However, we need to combine the insight of Annual Top 50 with Monthly Top 50, so we can reconfirm that this fund is now in Hold category than Invest category.

13. Those funds in the Annual Top 50 green list, and having good monthly or weekly list, but missing the Monthly Top 50 due to minor subpar monthly return, are not only worthy of Hold, but might pop into Monthly Top 50 again in coming weeks ahead. Need to watch it out.

14. Equity Annual Bottom 50 list is exploited to get insights on the bullish reversal of under performing funds, which does not mean investment consideration though, but for some frustrated loyal holders of such funds, it may give some relief. The persisting bad news is that many Bank ETF funds are still stuck in the Bottom 50, though if they start disappearing from here in the coming weeks, it will be a bell weather for superior returns of Banking funds. Let us see.

15. Hybrid Monthly Top 50 and Annual Top 50 funds list together help investment decisions for only those with focus on aggressive Hybrid funds.

16. Commodity funds do deserve a look as their roller coaster ride continues. Gold and Silver are bullish short term due to 50 basis point interest rate cut at the US, but long term predictions on them is bit daisy as if the recession happens in US they will nose dive, inflations and war news will make them go up. So, the roller coaster ride will continue ahead. Only distinction this time is that, some leadership has emerged this time with one fund in Green and two in Amber.

Therefore, looking at the Commodity funds movement give more clarity of uncertainity of global cues indirectly.

Bottom line, data by itself is no use, it is the insight we can seek through comparative analysis, such moves need to have motive, interest, effort and passion of gaming. Else, this report is an unnecessary torture for the reader.

17. You can anticipate this blog weekly, as well as the special MF reports once a while in all of my social network platforms. These blogs are also rendered as videos for those not prefering to read.

Blog: NatsFunCorner! on Blogger

Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/nupadhya

LinkedIn: https: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nupadhya/

Disclaimer:

- Mutual fund investments are subjected to market risk. Read the propsectus of a mutual fund for all the risk information associated prior to investment.

- The author can not be responsible for the ommissions or errors in the data from Value Research or the data processing errors if any by the author.

- All your investment decisions need to be based on your decision finally, with no blame to anyone else later.

Saturday, September 14, 2024

Special MF Report: Detailed Equity MF Returns Analysis by Sub Type as on Sept 13, 2024

Commentary:

1. Promise is to provide the detailed equity funds returns analysis by sub-type at least once a month, and here is the Sept 2024 edition.

2. The equity fund sub-types are ranked by their returns for all the timelines from 1W thru 1Y. Then the overall rank is arrived by taking an average rank across all the timelines. The fund subtypes are then sorted in the assending order of overall rank, meaning the fund types at the top are overall better performers across all the timelines considered.

3. Let us digest the fund sub type overall return rankings this time:

Top 5 (Ranking 1-5):

Consumption

Pharma

Small Cap

Mid Cap

Multi Cap

Next Top 5 (Ranking 6-10):

Technology

Large & Mid Cap

Flexi Cap

ESG

Thematic General

Next Top 5 (Ranking 11-15):

Infrastructure

ELSS

Value Oriented

Dividend Yield

Large Cap

Bottom 5 (Ranking 16-20)

Banking

PSU

MNC

Energy

International

4. Since we had generated similar report last month (As on Aug 10,2024), we can therefore analyse the relative ranking improvement and slippage since last report.

Fund sub types with ranking improvements (Ranking improvement steps in parantheses)

More than 5 steps ranking improvement by:

Flexi Cap (Improvement by 9 steps)

Small Cap (Improvement by 8 steps)

Technology (Improvement by 8 steps)

One to five steps ranking improvement by:

ELSS (Improvement by 4 steps)

Banking (Improvement by 4 steps)

Large & Mid Cap (Improvement by 3 steps)

Thematic General (Improvement by 2 steps)

Consumption (Improvement by 1 step)

Large Cap (Improvement by 1 step)

No ranking improvement or slippage by:

Mid Cap

Multi Cap

Value Oriented

MNC

International

Ranking Slippage upto 5 steps down

Pharma (Slippage by 1 step)

ESG (Slippage by 2 steps)

ELSS (Slippage by 2 steps)

Ranking Slippage between 6-10 Steps down

Dividend Yield (Slippage by 6 steps)

Ranking Slippage by more than 10 Steps down

Energy (Slippage by 13 steps)

PSU (Slippage by 14 steps)

Obviously, those holding Energy and PSU funds suffered significant losses on accumulated gains through the last one month.

5. Please note the average equity funds return given for all the timelines at the top, and marked in Amber. When it comes to the sub types, superior returns when compared to this average are marked in Green and sub-par returns are marked in Red. This way, you can assess how a sub type has fared relatively better or worse in a particular timeline when compared to the overall equity funds returns average. Obviously, one will see more red color as one goes down the list, and more green color as one goes up the list by sub-type. Green color at the bottom portion and red color at the top portion are anamolies, and need to be looked into for appreciating their deviation from the overall rank level expectations.

6. For each sub-type, the overall ranking for the particular timeline is marked (from 1 to 20). In case if same level of ranking is achieved (which can happen in overall ranking) across more than one fund sub-type, then a particular ranking is skipped. For example, Infrastructure and ELSS got overall ranking of 11, therefore ranking 12 is skipped.

7. By looking at this overall returns summary table at this level of detail, one can master the changes that have come into the performance of equity funds by sub-type. By moving with the returns changes of the fund sub-types, one gets to do better on key decisions, Buy, Hold and Sell toward better portfolio returns.

8. However, one needs to distinguish the superior or sub-par return of a particular fund irrespective of the sub-type rankings. Therefore, not to lose the ball on superior performers in general across all fund sub types, the top 50 equity funds both by month and year are re-attached below.

Please note that the green color is assigned to those funds which have above average return in all timelines from 1M thru 1Y. Amber color is assigned to those with above average return in all timelines from 1M thru 1Y except for one timeline. In case of recently launched fund with performance data for only one month, such fund is still marked as Amber as an exception than green for not having return information beyond a month.

The funds with green color here are investment worthy. The funds that are green in both the Monthly Top 50 and Annual Top 50 are far more preferred as they are rock solid by ensuring consistent return on both the lists. The one in amber can be considered only if one can rationalize the underperformance in a particular timeline. The one in amber are definitely Hold candidates. Monthly Bottom 50 list given in the weekly review can be used for Sell decisions, which is not a relevant focus here.

9. The performance review by Fund Sub-Type: Totally 20 fund sub types.

When it comes to the fund sub-types, the color green and amber assigned with same logic. However, the key difference to consider is that a fund in a sub-type may not be considered investment worthy just for getting the green status, as it is only a relative superior consistent performance within a fund sub type. The overall return of a fund in spite of green status can be sub-par as the overall performance of fund sub type also is sub-par.

The fund performance by fund sub-type is discussed in the assending order of overall performance ranking, which means that the fund sub-types discussed early on are better performers overall.

All the fund sub-type returns are sorted by the descending order of Monthly Return.

Also, please note that only top 50 funds based on Monthly return are given for those sub-types having more than 50 funds. Therefore, if you are holding a fund that does not appear in top 50 by monthly return, you wont be able to trace its peformance metric. You should be concerned for your fund not appearing in Top 50, and pursue the Hold Vs. Sell decision as part of your portfolio management. Please note that the following sub-types have more than 50 funds and you may miss to see a particular fund you hold from these sub-type lists.

Flexi Cap

Thematic General

ELSS

Large Cap

Banking

International

9.1. Consumption

9.2. Pharma

9.3. Small Cap

9.4. Mid Cap

9.5. Multi-Cap

9.6. Technology

9.7. Large & Mid Cap

9.8. Flexi Cap

9.9. ESG

9.10. Thematic General

9.11. Infrastructure

9.12. ELSS

9.13. Value Oriented

9.14. Dividend Yield

9.15. Large Cap

9.16. Banking

9.17. PSU

9.18. MNC

9.19. Energy

9.20. International

10. You can anticipate weekly blog, as well as this type special MF reports in all of my social network platforms. These blogs are also rendered as videos for those not prefering to read.

Blog: NatsFunCorner! on Blogger