Commentary:
1. Mutual funds of all types had a positive week as the weekly average has been positive.
2. Monthly Top 50 Equity funds maintain their monthly return momentum.
3. Significant weekly return on Annual Bottom 50 equity funds indicate broader recovery of under performing mutual funds.
4. The overall equity funds monthly returns average is reduced from 5.55 to 3.64 this week, which means the equity funds bit underperformed compared to last week, and there is a leadership churn out on the Equity Monthly Top 50.
5. The overall equity funds annual returns average is improved from 40.82 to 41.74, which means that there is broader recovery of annually leading mutual funds in general, meaning the mutual fund investments may look better attractive for short term ahead.
6. Annual Top 50 equity funds gave monthly return which is not only below the equity monthly return average, but also below the all types mf monthly return average, which means that annual return leaders are under further threat of relative under performance.
7. Looking at the Monthly Top 50 mutual funds, the funds in green are those with above average returns from all timelines from 1M thru 1Y within the list, the funds in amber are those with above average returns from all timelines from 1M thru 1Y except for one timeline within them. The one in green are definite choices for new investments short term, the one in amber too can be considered if their short term returns (1W and 1M) look relatively attractive.
8. The Bandhan Small Cap fund which has been the performing star for last one month or so has disappered from Monthly Top 50 altogether. So, it moves to Hold category now. Need to see whether it will pop up back to Monthly Top 50 ahead, which becomes a bell weather for Small Cap funds leadership accordingly. (Data in itself will not speak, our relative analysis will make it speak more and the relative analysis is not only within the list, but also the list from the last week and the next week. I do not highlight all such insights, only mention what catches my eye, but a far more attention may lead to more insights for the committed reader).
9. Last week, there was a special MF analysis, to appreciate the returns leadership of Equity funds by sub type. The Consumption funds came top ranked. That is further confirmed thru this week, as many consumption funds not only came into Monthly Top 50, and many of them made to the green or amber list. It is safe therefore to bet on consumption funds short term, till they vanish the Monthly Top 50 list.
10. Since the last of the week ended with promise of broader recovery of equities in coming days, we will see more competition within the Monthly Top 50 for superior return positions with more varied fund types appearing. So, watch the fun out ahead.
11. The Equity Monthly Bottom 50 list is exploited to fish out bearish reversal of top performing equity funds, and usually some fishes get into this net as an insight to leverage. The list highlists above average annual returns in Black Bold, and the below average weekly and monthly returns in Bold Red. The funds having above average annual return, and having below average return for the week or month are highlighted in Bold Red, and they are potentially prone to further correction ahead short time, so caution. The some such high performing funds caught here are the PSU funds, CPSE fund, Bharath 22 fund, Quant Mid Cap and Value Fund etc. We will see far more changes in this bottom 50 list in the coming weeks as the high return competition will push some under performers down into bottom 50 list.
12. Bandhan Small Cap is still in the green on the Annual Top 50 list. However, we need to combine the insight of Annual Top 50 with Monthly Top 50, so we can reconfirm that this fund is now in Hold category than Invest category.
13. Those funds in the Annual Top 50 green list, and having good monthly or weekly list, but missing the Monthly Top 50 due to minor subpar monthly return, are not only worthy of Hold, but might pop into Monthly Top 50 again in coming weeks ahead. Need to watch it out.
14. Equity Annual Bottom 50 list is exploited to get insights on the bullish reversal of under performing funds, which does not mean investment consideration though, but for some frustrated loyal holders of such funds, it may give some relief. The persisting bad news is that many Bank ETF funds are still stuck in the Bottom 50, though if they start disappearing from here in the coming weeks, it will be a bell weather for superior returns of Banking funds. Let us see.
16. Commodity funds do deserve a look as their roller coaster ride continues. Gold and Silver are bullish short term due to 50 basis point interest rate cut at the US, but long term predictions on them is bit daisy as if the recession happens in US they will nose dive, inflations and war news will make them go up. So, the roller coaster ride will continue ahead. Only distinction this time is that, some leadership has emerged this time with one fund in Green and two in Amber.
Therefore, looking at the Commodity funds movement give more clarity of uncertainity of global cues indirectly.
Bottom line, data by itself is no use, it is the insight we can seek through comparative analysis, such moves need to have motive, interest, effort and passion of gaming. Else, this report is an unnecessary torture for the reader.
17. You can anticipate this blog weekly, as well as the special MF reports once a while in all of my social network platforms. These blogs are also rendered as videos for those not prefering to read.
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Disclaimer:
- This is not a solicitation for mutual fund investment nor an advice. It is only an insight to help investment decisions based on the free MF performance data downloaded from Value Research. Investment decisions are only yours to make.
- Mutual fund investments are subjected to market risk. Read the propsectus of a mutual fund for all the risk information associated prior to investment.
- The author can not be responsible for the ommissions or errors in the data from Value Research or the data processing errors if any by the author.
- All your investment decisions need to be based on your decision finally, with no blame to anyone else later.
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