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Disclaimer:

- This is not a solicitation for mutual fund investment nor an advice. It is only an insight to help investment decisions based on the free MF performance data downloaded from Value Research. Investment decisions are only yours to make.

- Mutual fund investments are subjected to market risk. Read the propsectus of a mutual fund for all the risk information associated prior to investment.

- The author can not be responsible for the ommissions or errors in the data from Value Research or the data processing errors if any by the author.

- All your investment decisions need to be based on your decision finally, with no blame to anyone else later.

Friday, October 25, 2024

Top 50 Mutual Funds Analysis for the week ending Oct 25, 2024

Commentary:

1. The equities corrected further thru this week. The chances of equity falling to the Nifty level 0f 22,000 which is pre-Lokasabha results situation in June 2024 is quite possible. The equity mutual funds too reflect this severe correction thru this week.

2. Looking at the Weekly Top 50, the ones in the green or amber are those pertaining to equity outside India. The funds are marked in Green for having above average return within the list for all timelines from 1W thru 1Y. The funds are marked in Amber for having above average return within the list for all timelines from 1W thru 1Y except for one timeline, and here the 1W and 1M timelines are considered as one timeline together, so if the return is above average in any one timeline among these two, then both timelines are considered as above average.

3. Even in the Equity Monthly Top 50, we can not find any fund in Green or Amber.

4. In the Annual Top 50, though there are some funds in Green, they have negative return for the week and the month, though these returns are above average within the list.

5. Weekly Bottom 50 list is used to identify funds with potential bearish reversal. This is done by marking those funds with below average return in both 1W and 1M timeline, and above average return for 1Y as darker red. The ones in the lighter red have below average return either in 1W or 1M timeline and above average return for the 1Y timeline. These funds in red color may correct further ahead.

6. The monthly bottom 50 fund list is used for potential bearish reversal sign, similar to the weekly bottom 50 list.

7. Annual Bottom 50 list is used for potential bullish reversal sign, which is when both the weekly and monthly return are above average in the list. Such funds are marked in Grey.

8. Equity funds correction has impacted the Hybrid funds performance for short term.

9. One can see that the aggressive hybrid funds are mostly missing from the Monthly Top 50 Hybrid funds list, which indicates the extent of correction.

10. Debt funds too had sub par short term return through this week. But debt funds short term returns are better than that of equity and hybrid funds on average.

11. Debt funds Monthly Top 50 is similar to what we saw last week.

12. Commodity funds had a good week though it is not as good as last week. Overall commodity funds annual return is approaching 30% which is quite envious for those not invested in them.

13. Thanks to two weeks of bull run, there are many commodity funds in green. Commodity funds beg for short term investment given negative sentiment on equities ahead further.

14. Whether it is a weekly Top 50 MF report or special MF report, these are availble in the blog indicated below. Blogs are also rendered as videos (on Youtube and Instagram) for those not prefering to read.

Blog: NatsFunCorner! on Blogger

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Disclaimer:

- Mutual fund investments are subjected to market risk. Read the propsectus of a mutual fund for all the risk information associated prior to investment.

- The author can not be responsible for the ommissions or errors in the data from Value Research or the data processing errors if any by the author.

- All your investment decisions need to be based on your decision finally, with no blame to anyone else later.

Saturday, October 19, 2024

Special Mutual Fund Report: Detailed Returns Analysis of Hybrid funds by sub-type as on Oct 18, 2024

Commentary:

1. This detailed report of Hybrid Funds is attempted after two months. I personally do not persue hybrid funds as my faith in equity is strong and it consistently has given superior return even thru recent correction phases. I am not happy with aggressive hybrid funds because their equity portion is not managed well, in the sense that when equity correction hits, their performance should be better than equity, and usually it has not been, and that is my pet peeve. This is primarily due to vast battle ground in the equity funds with more than 920 funds, and there will be enough winners in the top, and performance based investment scheme of mine protects my investments on approx. 80% of my equity investment choices thru the correction phase. I do sell the rest 20% before or thru correction, only to free up the limited cash to seek the new performance leaders post correction. But that is me, there are classical reasons to pursue hybrid funds for long term stability, and I too will get there as my asset grows large enough to worry about conservation more than growth.

2. As you can see that only two types of aggressive funds maintained overall top ranking and the Dynamic Asset allocation funds have tumbled significantly in the last one month, and last week too, they were the last in performance. As a result, based on my algorithm of overall ranking, this fund type got the last seventh rank. Usually, dynamic asset allocation funds perform at par with multi-asset, and somewhere their investment algorithm has gone out of whack with current market realities.

3. But, please note that Dynamic Asset Allocation type hybrid funds will come back to second or third rank soon, once the current equity correction phase gets over.

4. Key ranking changes since the last report:

Ranking improvements:

Multi Asset: Improvement by 3

Balanced, Conservative, Equity Savings, Arbitrage: Improvement by 1

Hybrid Aggressive: No ranking change, remains in the top rank

Dynamic Asset Allocation: Overall rank slippage to the last 7th, slippage by 4

5. Overall Monthly Top 50 Hybrid Funds across all sub-types: It is repeated below from the recent weekly report, so that overall best monthly performers across all the 217 funds is given below.

6. Detailed Returns Report by Sub-Type:

6.1. Aggressive Hybrid:

6.2. Multi Asset Allocation:

6.3. Balanced Hybrid:

6.4. Conservative Hybrid:

6.5. Equity Savings:

6.6. Arbitrage

6.7. Dynamic Asset Allocation:

7. Whether it is a weekly Top 50 MF report or special MF report, these are availble in the blog indicated below. Blogs are also rendered as videos (on Youtube and Instagram) for those not prefering to read.

Blog: NatsFunCorner! on Blogger

Other relevant Social Network Platform links:

Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/nupadhya

LinkedIn: https: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nupadhya/

Disclaimer:

- Mutual fund investments are subjected to market risk. Read the propsectus of a mutual fund for all the risk information associated prior to investment.

- The author can not be responsible for the ommissions or errors in the data from Value Research or the data processing errors if any by the author.

- All your investment decisions need to be based on your decision finally, with no blame to anyone else later.

Top 50 Mutual Funds Analysis for the week ending Oct 18, 2024

Commentary:

PART A: EQUITY FUNDS

1. Equities had a bearish week. But the equities had a rally on Friday, the last trading day of the week, else the numbers for the week could have been worse that what is shown above. Banks rallied, and the sentiments looked up for now. Hope the worst is over for the Indian equity, for this no more FII withdrawl of funds from equity needs to be confirmed through next week.

2. Looking at the averages of all equity funds (last line) across this week and last week, the equity funds corrected for both the week and month. The average annual return shrunk from 40.46 % to 39.8%.

3. The weekly gain of Weekly Top 50 this week is 1.78% compared to 3.03% last week. The monthly gain of Monthly Top 50 this week is 6.33% compared to 10.22% last week. The annual gain of annual Top 50 this week is 65.36% compared to 67.38% last week.

4. Given below are the Top 50 equity funds per weekly, monthly and annual. The one marked in the green are those with above average return in the list for all timelines from 1W thru 1Y. The one in amber are those with above average return in for all timelines from 1W thru 1Y except for 1 timeline. For amber, if any of the 1W or 1M return are above average, then it is considered as above average for both the timelines. One can definitely look at green ones as investment worthy. The amber ones too are investment worthy if their returns in the recent week are above average and spectacular.

5. Given below are the weekly bottom 50 and monthly bottom 50 list. Both the lists are used to identify potential bearish reversal of high performing funds. This is done by marking below average return within the list for both 1W and 1M timelines, and above average return for the 1Y timelines.

From this week, a refinement is made in identifying potential bearish reversals. If both the weekly and monthly returns are below average with annual return is above average, then such rows are marked as slightly darker red. If only one of the weekly or monthly returns are below average and annual return i above average, then the fund is marked with lighter red. The ones with darker red are more pronounced for bearish reversal.

6. Annual Bottom 50 list is used for identifying potential bullish reversal. The rule for bullish reversal is tightened further from this week, which is both the 1W and 1M returns need to be below the average within the list, such funds are marked with grey. Since the bank stocks rallied on Friday, hope the banking funds stuck in this annual bottom 50 will show better bullish reversal thru next week, it is ideal if they disappear from this list altogether.

PART B: HYBRID FUNDS

7. Due to equity correction, hybrid funds to receeded in performance in almost all timelines except for 6M timeline. There is leadership churnout in the Monthly Top 50 Hybrid funds list.

8. When we see more conservative type hybrid funds in the Monthly Top 50 (eg. equity savings, arbitrage), which usually has more aggressive hybrid funds in the list, it is clear indication of the high intensity of equity correction within hybrid funds.

PART C: DEBT FUNDS

9. The debt funds show much lesser return for the short term, i.e. for 1W, 1M, 3M timelines this week, when compared to last week.

10. We can see churn out in the Monthly Top 50 leadership in the debt funds too.

PART D: COMMODITY FUNDS

11. Though commodity funds 1W return bounced back this week, the annual returns reduced. Basically, there is churn out in commodity funds leadership thru the volitility of global commodity prices.

12. Whether it is a weekly Top 50 MF report or special MF report, these are availble in the blog indicated below. Blogs are also rendered as videos (on Youtube and Instagram) for those not prefering to read.

Blog: NatsFunCorner! on Blogger

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