This week:
Last Week:
Commentary:
Summary
The mutual funds, in general, went up through this week. The bullishness was more pronounced for the commodities and equities. With this, all types of mutual funds, on average, have established positive returns for all the timelines from 1W thu 1Y, except for the equity funds, still showing negative return for the annual basis.
Concern:
There are too many concerns on a global level, when it comes to the equity. The interest rate reduction proposed in the US market by Sept 18 may be keeping it bit afloat, but the corrections are anticipated post that event, due to mounting fiscal debt and de-dollarisation and dollar losing value. To make things worse, there is a proposal to increase interest rate in Japan Yen. This will have some repayment impact for 20 Trillion USD worth global borrowing on easily available Japanese Yen, and the borrowers will be forced to sell their investments to make this happen. It wont be a surprise if we see 20-30% correction globally in such sensitive markets, and some of that will flow into Indian market too, mainly due to the liquidity crunch the sellers will face.
Opportunity:
The global equity sell off in the short term creates huge opportunity in the Indian market to pick up right equities for longer and shorter term investments. Further, India has been making right moves in global trade, so much so, it can even survive if the trade with the trouble making US wipes out to be zero. So, the US will dance hot and cold in search of best bargain with Indian trade, but the India has learned a hard lesson not to trust the US for foreseeable future on trade agreements, which means the Indian fortitude in trade related re-alignments will pay off to the domestic industry, imports and exports. The GST reductions will increase consumption ahead. The easing of monitory policy by RBI will pay off thru next quarterly season. So, the global correction will give perfect opportunity for the domestic players to pick up good investments, especially in certain industries, consumption, and beaten down fundamentally good companies.
De-dollarisation and dollar losing value will have to reflect as the price increase in gold and silver. To make things worse, the US may revalue its gold colleciton for approx. USD 800 billion accounting advantage on its debt burden. This will send shock wave into Gold and Silver prices. The impending inflation and recession in the US market ahead, thanks to Trump-economics will increase global demand for the gold. If the US FED goes for quantitative easing to manage all these challenges, the commodity prices will shoot up further.
Bottom line, the bullish tendencies for Gold and Silver at the current rate will continue for the next six months. An additional 25% hike in the prices thru next six months is projected easily.
1. Combined Funds Top 50
1.1. Combined Funds Top 50 Summary
The Top 50 funds returns across the week, month and the year are going up. That means, the prudent investors riding on performance leaders are benefitting on such investments. Key challenge is to stick to the consistency of performance, for which one needs to look into Green and Yellow marked funds in top 50 funds list.
1.2. Combined Top 50
Green and Amber color marked mutual funds in the list: Since the focus is not only looking for the performance leaders, but also consistent above average performance across all the timelines, the funds are marked in Green or Amber to easily recognize consistency of perfromance among the leaders.
Green:
If the returns for all the available timelines from 1W thru 1Y is above the average within the list. The fund can not be marked green even with this rule if the returns are not available beyond a month, in which case the fund is marked as amber only.
Amber:
If the returns for all the available timelines from 1W thru 1Y is above the average within the list except for one timeline. For this exception, if any of the weekly and monthly returns are above average, then both timelines are considered to have above average
1.2.1. Combined Weekly Top 50
1.2.2. Combined Monthly Top 50
1.2.3. Combined Annual Top 50
Bearish reversal signs:
Both the weekly and monthly bottom 50 lists are leveraged to identify potential bearish reversal indications of the funds. This is done by marking above average annual return in bold and below average returns for the week and month. The funds with both weekly and monthy below average, but annual above average are marked in darker red, while the funds with only one of the weekly and monthly below averages but with above average annual return are marked in light red.
Bullish reversal signs:
Annual bottom 50 funds list is used to recognize potential bullish reversal. Any fund with above average return for both the week and the month in the list is marked as grey indicating potential bullish reversal.
2. Referrence Links
Blog: NatsFunCorner! on Blogger
https://natsfuncorner.blogspot.com/
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Disclaimer:
- This is not a solicitation for mutual fund investment nor an advice. It is only an insight to help investment decisions based on the free MF performance data downloaded from Value Research. Investment decisions are only yours to make.
- Mutual fund investments are subjected to market risk. Read the propsectus of a mutual fund for all the risk information associated prior to investment.
- The author can not be responsible for the ommissions or errors in the data from Value Research or the data processing errors if any by the author.
- All your investment decisions need to be based on your decision finally, with no blame to anyone else later.
