Commentary:
Summary
Thanks to successive monetary policy easing by RBI since Feb 2025, the FII money inflows to the Indian market resumed, ensuring a positive buoyancy for both the investors and traders since then. US tariff confusions also helped. This also helped the market to survive the Q1 results season with a mild positive outlook than the anticipated fear then that there could be further declines due to negative outlooks. The Operation Sindoor success gave positive outlook for the defence stocks ahead while the financial sector continued the party. The market seems to be fully absorbing all the outlooks out there except for positive or negative uncertainities ahead which primarily stem from the global cues. These cues are primarily related to the news of US China Trade agreement, US India Trade agreement, Israel - Iran war situation and the Ukrane - Russia war situation influencing oil and global commerce supply chain disruptions Vs further easing, US debt handling ahead etc. etc. These developments will also significantly influence the precial metal and commodity price projections globally. For example, in the short term, there is a speculation that Gold price from the current average of USD 3400 per ounce, can fluctuate between USD 3100 to 3800 per ounce. Bottomline, there will be significant seasaw of sentiments short term on different developments, leading to a favorable situation to expert traders only. The investors will be bit miffed.
The Indian domestic cues will emerge beyond July 20th only, with the Q1 2026 results pouring in till Aug 31st. Hence till July 20th, only the international liquidity for the Indian market and overall global sentiments will lead to the volatility in the Indian market. Only possible exception can be any new defence exports related breakthrus for India ahead.
Bottom line, the mutual fund performances will be reactive to these volatile momentums, and therefore there may not be consistent leadership patterns in the weekly reports short term, including this week report.
I am personally focused to exploit the market short term with risk managed trades only and avoid the mutual fund investments till the Indian domestic cues take the lead over the international cues as a major influencer. Any short term opportunities for both the domestic and international contexts will be exploited by me thru the ETF level short term trades only. I will return to mutual fund buys only after confirmation from the reports that 30-50% level further consistent annual returns promise can be ensured by consistent performance leaders thru these reports ahead, like it happened during 2022-2023 good times which lasted till March 2024.
Concern:
Looking at the Combined MF status summary above, and contrasting the same across this week and last week, though it sounds positive for all the MF types except for the Commodities this week, the Combined Top 50 summaries have more red cells than the last week meaning underperformance, when compared to the overall combined fund averages which are shown in yellow. This is a huge concern on consistency of leadership behavior ahead, in spite of the fact that the combined MF averages across various timelines improved in general (except for the 6 months timeline) this week when compared to the last week.
1. Combined Funds Top 50
1.1. Combined Funds Top 50 Summary
The weekly positive performance at the Combined MF level averages helped the Weekly Average of Weekly Top 50 to surpass the same from the last week. But, the Monthly average of the Monthly Top 50 and Annual average of Annual Top 50 declining is a cause for concern ahead on assuming consistency of leadership behavior again.
1.2. Combined Top 50
Green and Amber color marked mutual funds in the list: Since the focus is not only looking for the performance leaders, but also consistent above average performance across all the timelines, the funds are marked in Green or Amber to easily recognize consistency of perfromance among the leaders.
Green:
If the returns for all the available timelines from 1W thru 1Y is above the average within the list. The fund can not be marked green even with this rule if the returns are not available beyond a month, in which case the fund is marked as amber only.
Amber:
If the returns for all the available timelines from 1W thru 1Y is above the average within the list except for one timeline. For this exception, if any of the weekly and monthly returns are above average, then both timelines are considered to have above average
1.2.1. Combined Weekly Top 50
1.2.2. Combined Monthly Top 50
2.
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Disclaimer:
- This is not a solicitation for mutual fund investment nor an advice. It is only an insight to help investment decisions based on the free MF performance data downloaded from Value Research. Investment decisions are only yours to make.
- Mutual fund investments are subjected to market risk. Read the propsectus of a mutual fund for all the risk information associated prior to investment.
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